Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to Bt331m (-82% YoY)</li>
<li>Weak 3Q22 performance GPSC reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt331.0m (-82% YoY, -52% QoQ), which was lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>The YoY and QoQ earnings drop were caused mainly due to a significantly higher natural gas (+110%YoY,+33%QoQ) and coal price (+236% YoY, +73% QoQ) which resulted in lower SPP margins.</li>
</ul>


We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to Bt331m (-82% YoY)
Weak 3Q22 performance GPSC reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt331.0m (-82% YoY, -52% QoQ), which was lower than our expectation.
The YoY and QoQ earnings drop were caused mainly due to a significantly higher natural gas (+110%YoY,+33%QoQ) and coal price (+236% YoY, +73% QoQ) which resulted in lower SPP margins.


GPSC : Rising Gas Prices Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thailand's state-owned energy firm <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT (PTT TB)</a></strong> recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.</li>
<li>Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.</li>
<li>PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's state-owned energy firm PTT (PTT TB) recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.
Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.
PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.


PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

<ul>
<li>We maintain our HOLD rating due to limited upside following the rise in gas cost in 2H22. GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit doubled QoQ to Bt684m (-70%YoY),in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>2Q22 earnings improved QoQ but dropped YoY GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit improved QoQ to Bt684m (-70% YoY, 118% QoQ). The results came out in line with our expectations.  </li>
<li>GPM in 2Q22 improved to 5.4% QoQ (vs 2.6% in 1Q22) while worsened YoY (18.3% in 2Q21).  </li>
</ul>


We maintain our HOLD rating due to limited upside following the rise in gas cost in 2H22. GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit doubled QoQ to Bt684m (-70%YoY),in line with our expectations.
2Q22 earnings improved QoQ but dropped YoY GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit improved QoQ to Bt684m (-70% YoY, 118% QoQ). The results came out in line with our expectations.  
GPM in 2Q22 improved to 5.4% QoQ (vs 2.6% in 1Q22) while worsened YoY (18.3% in 2Q21).  


<ul>
<li>We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt69.0,derived using DCF methodology (WACC 5.7% and TG 1%),implying 32x PE’23E.Our valuation reflects weak SPP operations outlook in 2022</li>
<li>Expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ,from 1) better SPP margin backed by upward Ft adjustment 2) Full quarter profit recognition from GE phase 5 after maintenance shut down (3Q21-1Q22)</li>
<li>Full year 2022 outlook remains weak, as we expect the EPS to shrink by 37%.YoY due to continued pressure on SPP margins from high fuel cost. We are more positive </li>
</ul>


We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt69.0,derived using DCF methodology (WACC 5.7% and TG 1%),implying 32x PE’23E.Our valuation reflects weak SPP operations outlook in 2022
Expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ,from 1) better SPP margin backed by upward Ft adjustment 2) Full quarter profit recognition from GE phase 5 after maintenance shut down (3Q21-1Q22)
Full year 2022 outlook remains weak, as we expect the EPS to shrink by 37%.YoY due to continued pressure on SPP margins from high fuel cost. We are more positive 


GPSC: Improving Earnings Performance from Tariff Adjustment

<ul>
<li>GPSC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt313m (-84%YoY, -73% QoQ),an all time low. The result came out lower than our expectation, mainly dragged by the slump in SPP margins due </li>
<li>The gross profit margin in 1Q22 fall to an all time low of 3%,compared to 20% in 1Q21 and 8% in 4Q21, following the rise in natural gas fuel cost</li>
<li>We turn negative on GPSC 2022 earnings outlook,the SPP margins are expected to remain under pressure in 1H22 and gradually pick up 3Q22 onwards as the fuel price begins normalizing.</li>
</ul>


GPSC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt313m (-84%YoY, -73% QoQ),an all time low. The result came out lower than our expectation, mainly dragged by the slump in SPP margins due 
The gross profit margin in 1Q22 fall to an all time low of 3%,compared to 20% in 1Q21 and 8% in 4Q21, following the rise in natural gas fuel cost
We turn negative on GPSC 2022 earnings outlook,the SPP margins are expected to remain under pressure in 1H22 and gradually pick up 3Q22 onwards as the fuel price begins normalizing.


GPSC: 1Q22 Earnings Hit by Low SPP Margin

Thailand

Ratch Group PCL operates as a power producer company. The Company focuses on investment fossil fuel power generation and renewable projects, as well as businesses adjacent to electricity generation and energy. Ratchaburi Group serves customers in Asia.

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited is an electric utility holding company.  The Company, through its two major subsidiaries, produces and supplies electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), under long term power purchase agreements of 20 and 15 years.  It also operates energy related businesses through joint ventures.

B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited operates as a renewable energy company. The Company focuses on the development, financing, construction, and operation of green field power plants. B.Grimm Power also renders electricity distribution, operations, and maintenance services. B.Grimm Power serves clients in Asia.

CK Power PCL develops and generates power. The Company operates in Thailand.

Banpu Power PCL operats power plants in Thailand, Laos, China and Japan.

TPI Polene Power Public Company Limited operates waste heat recovery power plants and oil and natural gas (NGV) stations. The Company conducts business in Thailand.

TPI Polene Power Public Company (TPIPP TB)

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

SPCG PCL is an alternative energy company that is developing solar farms.  The Company is developing solar farms located in the Northeastern region of Thailand.

Super Energy Corporation Public Company Limited produces and distributes electricity using solar and alternative energy sources. The Company also offers information technology services. Super Energy Corporation serves customers in Thailand.

Sahacogen Chonburi Public Company Limited is a power production company that generates steam and electricity by using the Cogeneration Technology.

Electric Power Development Co.,Ltd. generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric power using hydroelectric, wind-power, nuclear, coal-fired and other thermal power stations throughout Japan.

Guangzhou Development Group Inc operates an electric power generation plant in Guangzhou, China.  The Company also sells coal, invests in the fiber-optic cable network installation business, and constructs roads and bridges.

An Hui Wenergy Co., Ltd. generates electric power.  Through its subsidiaries, the company also manufactures networking terminal products.

Clearway Energy, Inc. owns, operates, and acquires renewable and conventional generation and thermal infrastructure projects. The Company offers natural gas and dual fired, solar and wind generation and distribution services. Clearway Energy serves commercial businesses, universities, hospitals, and government companies in the United States.

Beijing Jingneng Power Co., Ltd. generates electrical and thermal power.  The Company also maintains and repairs electricity generation equipment.

Encavis AG provides electricity generation from power plants. The Company produces power from renewable energy sources which includes solar energy plants and wind farms, as well as specializes in the technical operation of solar parks, routine maintenance, monitoring, incident management, and performance analysis. Encavis serves renewable energy sector in Europe.

Drax Group PLC generates and supplies electricity.  The Company owns a coal and biomass-fired power plant in the United Kingdom.

The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited is an investment company. The Company invests in a range of assets that generate electricity from renewable sources, with a particular focus on onshore wind farms and solar PV parks.

AC Energy Corp operates as a renewable power generation company. The Company operates wind, solar, and geothermal energy plants. AC Energy serves customers in Philippines.

Enel Generacion Chile SA operates as an electricity generation company. The Company generates and distributes electric energy.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

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Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

GPSC : Rising Gas Prices Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.

David Blennerhassett

GPSC : 2Q22 Earnings Recovered QoQ

We maintain our HOLD rating due to limited upside following the rise in gas cost in 2H22. GPSC’s 2Q22 net profit doubled QoQ to Bt684m (-70% YoY),...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

GPSC: Improving Earnings Performance from Tariff Adjustment

We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt69.0, derived using DCF methodology (WACC 5.7% and TG 1%), implying 32x PE’23E. Our...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

GPSC: 1Q22 Earnings Hit by Low SPP Margin

GPSC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt313m (-84%YoY, -73% QoQ), an all time low. The result came out lower than our expectation, mainly dragged by the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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