Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The risk regarding the government’s policy to subsidize electricity bills through the reduction of Ft will have a direct impact on SPP operators’ earnings.</li><li>In addition, the upward revision to the Thai 10Y bond yield estimate in the house view (to 3.95% in2024E) will have a negative effect on the power sector in terms of debt leverage, as a higher return will be required to offset the elevated funding costs in the future.</li><li>Taking these factors into account, we have revised down our earnings projections for BGRIM and GPSC, as well as their fair values. </li></ul>

The risk regarding the government’s policy to subsidize electricity bills through the reduction of Ft will have a direct impact on SPP operators’ earnings.In addition, the upward revision to the Thai 10Y bond yield estimate in the house view (to 3.95% in2024E) will have a negative effect on the power sector in terms of debt leverage, as a higher return will be required to offset the elevated funding costs in the future.Taking these factors into account, we have revised down our earnings projections for BGRIM and GPSC, as well as their fair values. 

Industry Update – Energy (Power Sector) - October 27, 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The recent share price pullback sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. 
Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> launched a Delisting Offer for 79.66%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group (OISHI TB)</a>, at THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. </li>
<li>This two-step Offer required a shareholder vote followed by a tendering process. Yesterday (the 3rd May), Oishi shareholders approved the Delisting Offer. </li>
<li>The tendering period may kick off around this time next month, with an expected payment late August. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th March, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) launched a Delisting Offer for 79.66%-held Oishi Group (OISHI TB), at THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. 
This two-step Offer required a shareholder vote followed by a tendering process. Yesterday (the 3rd May), Oishi shareholders approved the Delisting Offer. 
The tendering period may kick off around this time next month, with an expected payment late August. 


Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer

Equity Bottom-Up

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GPSC reported a 2Q23 NP of Bt309mn (-55% YoY, -72% QoQ), including an extra item relating to the coal stock adjustment at the Gheco-One project of -Bt210mn.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, core profit was recorded at Bt487mn (-16% YoY, -53% QoQ) in the quarter, lower than our projection of Bt532mn by around 9%.</li>
<li>The weak 2Q23 core earnings QoQ can be blamed on the following.</li>
</ul>


GPSC reported a 2Q23 NP of Bt309mn (-55% YoY, -72% QoQ), including an extra item relating to the coal stock adjustment at the Gheco-One project of -Bt210mn.
Meanwhile, core profit was recorded at Bt487mn (-16% YoY, -53% QoQ) in the quarter, lower than our projection of Bt532mn by around 9%.
The weak 2Q23 core earnings QoQ can be blamed on the following.


Earnings Review - Global Power Synergy Plc. (GPSC)

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://weblink.set.or.th/dat/news/202303/23031517.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10th March</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> proposed taking 79.66%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a> private, at an Offer price of THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. </li>
<li>This Delisting Offer requires a shareholder vote which will take place on the 3&lt;May. Payment may occur mid-to-late August. </li>
<li>In its report yesterday, the IFA reckons "that the shareholders should approve of the voluntary delisting".</li>
</ul>


On the 10th March, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) proposed taking 79.66%-held Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) private, at an Offer price of THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. 
This Delisting Offer requires a shareholder vote which will take place on the 3&lt;May. Payment may occur mid-to-late August. 
In its report yesterday, the IFA reckons "that the shareholders should approve of the voluntary delisting".


Thailand

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

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Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

Industry Update – Energy (Power Sector) - October 27, 2023

The risk regarding the government’s policy to subsidize electricity bills through the reduction of Ft will have a direct impact on SPP operators’...

Krungthai XSpring

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

I'd look to buy PTT outright; or hedge 40% with PTTEP (worth 36% of NAV); 15% of PTT Oil (worth 14% of NAV), together with O&G names to short.

David Blennerhassett

Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer

The Offer for Oishi has closed with ThaiBev holding 98.5%. Despite the odd 5.9% gain yesterday, Oishi's IR has confirmed that i) shares are...

David Blennerhassett

Earnings Review - Global Power Synergy Plc. (GPSC)

GPSC reported a 2Q23 NP of Bt309mn (-55% YoY, -72% QoQ), including an extra item relating to the coal stock adjustment at the Gheco-One project of ...

Krungthai XSpring

Oishi Group: IFA Backs ThaiBev's Offer

Assuming completion on the 23 August, this is trading tight at 2.3%/6.9% gross annualised. If already in, stay in for completion. Otherwise, get...

David Blennerhassett

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