Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Itochu, Familymart, PPI (Don Quijote) and their data analytics partners have come together in the first case of cross-retailer ad platform development.</li>
<li>Itochu provides the central relationship that ties these companies together, and other deals are likely given the significant potential for retail media.</li>
<li>The opportunity for brands to market to these retailers’ customers through highly targeted ads will become ever more compelling, delivering new revenue streams for Donki and Familymart.</li>
</ul>


Itochu, Familymart, PPI (Don Quijote) and their data analytics partners have come together in the first case of cross-retailer ad platform development.
Itochu provides the central relationship that ties these companies together, and other deals are likely given the significant potential for retail media.
The opportunity for brands to market to these retailers’ customers through highly targeted ads will become ever more compelling, delivering new revenue streams for Donki and Familymart.


Itochu and Donki Tie on Retail Media to Create Major New Revenue Stream

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. </li>
<li>Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>. It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. </li>
<li>There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> in the event that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a>’s results collapse further.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. 
Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP). It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. 
There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) in the event that Kioxia (6600 JP)’s results collapse further.


Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). </li>
<li>The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. </li>
<li>My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.</li>
</ul>


This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). 
The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. 
My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

<ul>
<li>Adastria is on a roll, capturing more market share in both the core apparel market as well as through licensing (Forever 21) and home decoration and other lifestyle markets.</li>
<li>Until now, it has focused on slightly premium mass markets but a new chain will face Uniqlo and Muji head on in apparel basics.</li>
<li>It is also adding a new basics chain in home decoration and hoovering up contracts to supply apparel to chain stores. </li>
</ul>


Adastria is on a roll, capturing more market share in both the core apparel market as well as through licensing (Forever 21) and home decoration and other lifestyle markets.
Until now, it has focused on slightly premium mass markets but a new chain will face Uniqlo and Muji head on in apparel basics.
It is also adding a new basics chain in home decoration and hoovering up contracts to supply apparel to chain stores. 


Adastria Takes on Uniqlo and Muji with New Chain

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

Itochu and Donki Tie on Retail Media to Create Major New Revenue Stream

Retail media is just emerging but will become a major source of new revenues for retailers in Japan thanks to their high footfall and customer...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week

Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a...

Travis Lundy

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Adastria Takes on Uniqlo and Muji with New Chain

Adastria is on a roll, expanding brands in Japan's rebounding clothing market. While in the long-term there is not much room for the apparel market...

Michael Causton

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