Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Adastria is on a roll, capturing more market share in both the core apparel market as well as through licensing (Forever 21) and home decoration and other lifestyle markets.</li>
<li>Until now, it has focused on slightly premium mass markets but a new chain will face Uniqlo and Muji head on in apparel basics.</li>
<li>It is also adding a new basics chain in home decoration and hoovering up contracts to supply apparel to chain stores. </li>
</ul>


Adastria is on a roll, capturing more market share in both the core apparel market as well as through licensing (Forever 21) and home decoration and other lifestyle markets.
Until now, it has focused on slightly premium mass markets but a new chain will face Uniqlo and Muji head on in apparel basics.
It is also adding a new basics chain in home decoration and hoovering up contracts to supply apparel to chain stores. 


Adastria Takes on Uniqlo and Muji with New Chain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.</li>
</ul>


SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the Nikkei225 and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.
The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 
With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the Nikkei225 with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.


SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Futs -0.3% as US OFF ON FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY as Biden makes the trip to Ukraine;  Markets still focused inflation/rate hikes; Europe Resource Stocks bid on China Recovery</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 134.29; North Korea launches  2 more missiles as Japan cries foul;  Defense stocks in focus today? BOJ March Surprise?  </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Toto(5332) - Bottoming here?  Pricing in all of the US near term downside and ignoring the upside to a China recovery ? </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Futs -0.3% as US OFF ON FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY as Biden makes the trip to Ukraine;  Markets still focused inflation/rate hikes; Europe Resource Stocks bid on China Recovery
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 134.29; North Korea launches  2 more missiles as Japan cries foul;  Defense stocks in focus today? BOJ March Surprise?  
DAILY NUGGET. Toto(5332) - Bottoming here?  Pricing in all of the US near term downside and ignoring the upside to a China recovery ? 


Good Morning Japan | US Out; Rates Worry Europe Stocks;NKorea Fires 2 More Missiles;Toto -Bottom In?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.</li>
<li>Also like Q2, they announced a buyback - this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.</li>
<li>This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
Also like Q2, they announced a buyback - this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.


Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 - Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Adastria Takes on Uniqlo and Muji with New Chain

Adastria is on a roll, expanding brands in Japan's rebounding clothing market. While in the long-term there is not much room for the apparel market...

Michael Causton

SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

With increased interest in Climate investing, market participants can use the SGX listed futures to get a similar risk/reward as the Nikkei225 with...

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan | US Out; Rates Worry Europe Stocks;NKorea Fires 2 More Missiles;Toto -Bottom In?

North Korea launches 2 more missiles as Japan cries foul; Defense stocks in focus today? BOJ March Surprise? . STOCK FOCUS TODAY: Toto the...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 - Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

Mitsui had a great Q3, forecasting an even better Q4. It announced a new Buyback to pay out 100% of incremental Net Profit, 142% of incremental...

Travis Lundy

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