Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.</li>
<li>It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.</li>
<li>There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.
It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.
There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. </li>
<li>Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021's 15% growth is not sustainable.</li>
<li>Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic</li>
</ul>


Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. 
Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021's 15% growth is not sustainable.
Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>AMD delivered another record year with outstanding growth in all key business lines.</li><li>Its datacenter revenue has been doubling year after year given the increased shift from on-premise to cloud offerings.</li><li>The company’s gross margin is expanding and there has been a strong demand for AMD's higher-end desktop CPUs and AMD notebooks.</li></ul>

AMD delivered another record year with outstanding growth in all key business lines.Its datacenter revenue has been doubling year after year given the increased shift from on-premise to cloud offerings.The company’s gross margin is expanding and there has been a strong demand for AMD's higher-end desktop CPUs and AMD notebooks.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.: Financial & Price Forecasts

<ul>
<li>We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%.</li>
<li>We highlighted TSMC was considering to increase the wafer price nearly 2 months ago, but TSMC has still not made the final decision yet.  </li>
<li>TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for for 150k/month within 4Q22. We think the new iPhone 14 would request more than half of the capacity.</li>
</ul>


We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%.
We highlighted TSMC was considering to increase the wafer price nearly 2 months ago, but TSMC has still not made the final decision yet.  
TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for for 150k/month within 4Q22. We think the new iPhone 14 would request more than half of the capacity.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TSMC will raise wafer price about 6% for all product lines since the beginning of 2023. It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be...

Patrick Liao

Intel 1Q22: Unexplained Optimism

Intel maintained its full year guidance and increased its EPS by $0.10 despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back...

Aaron Gabin

Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

Jim Handy

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.: Financial & Price Forecasts

AMD delivered another record year with outstanding growth in all key business lines. Its datacenter revenue has been doubling year after year...

Baptista Research

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%. TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for 150k...

Patrick Liao

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