Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor downturn is largely attributable to the reversion of PC and Smartphone unit shipments to their pre-pandemic norms</li>
<li>There are good reasons to believe that the trough for PC unit shipments will be Q1 2023. </li>
<li>Server shipments will decline sequentially in H1 and this may further prolong the impact on memory players, Intel and to a lesser extent, AMD &amp; NVIDIA</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor downturn is largely attributable to the reversion of PC and Smartphone unit shipments to their pre-pandemic norms
There are good reasons to believe that the trough for PC unit shipments will be Q1 2023. 
Server shipments will decline sequentially in H1 and this may further prolong the impact on memory players, Intel and to a lesser extent, AMD &amp; NVIDIA


<ul>
<li>While his hiring back in 2017 was heralded with a corporate press release, his abrupt departure yesterday was communicated via a rather succinct tweet from the CEO. </li>
<li>Intel's GPU/DPU data center roadmap was already "simplified" in back in January. Will what remains survive the ongoing cuts across the company?</li>
<li>Should Intel still really be trying to break into the gaming PC market? How is that strategically important? </li>
</ul>


While his hiring back in 2017 was heralded with a corporate press release, his abrupt departure yesterday was communicated via a rather succinct tweet from the CEO. 
Intel's GPU/DPU data center roadmap was already "simplified" in back in January. Will what remains survive the ongoing cuts across the company?
Should Intel still really be trying to break into the gaming PC market? How is that strategically important? 


<ul>
<li>AMD Q4 2022 revenues amounted to $5.6 billion, $100 million above the midpoint of the guided range, flat sequentially but an increase of 16% YoY. </li>
<li>Intel Q4 2022 revenue amounted to $14 billion, at the very bottom of the guided range down 8% sequentially and down 28% YoY.</li>
<li>Facing the same macro headwinds, AMD significantly outperformed Intel across a wide range of key metrics in 2022</li>
</ul>


AMD Q4 2022 revenues amounted to $5.6 billion, $100 million above the midpoint of the guided range, flat sequentially but an increase of 16% YoY. 
Intel Q4 2022 revenue amounted to $14 billion, at the very bottom of the guided range down 8% sequentially and down 28% YoY.
Facing the same macro headwinds, AMD significantly outperformed Intel across a wide range of key metrics in 2022


<ul>
<li>AMD's overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years</li>
<li>AMD’s desktop market share rebounded from 13.9% in Q3 2022 to 18.6% in Q4 2022</li>
<li>AMD will likely prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 &amp; 2024, pressing home their clear leadership advantage over Intel in this segment during this timeframe</li>
</ul>


AMD's overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years
AMD’s desktop market share rebounded from 13.9% in Q3 2022 to 18.6% in Q4 2022
AMD will likely prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 &amp; 2024, pressing home their clear leadership advantage over Intel in this segment during this timeframe


AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Anatomy Of A Semiconductor Downturn

The current semiconductor downturn is largely attributable to the reversion of PC and Smartphone unit shipments to their pre-pandemic norms. We...

William Keating

Intel's GPU Guru Departs. Very Abruptly.

Intel's GPU/DPU data center roadmap was already "simplified" in back in January. Will what remains survive the ongoing cuts across the company?

William Keating

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Throughout 2022, Intel's leadership team made a series of very poor decisions which caused the company to significantly underperform across a wide...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

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Anatomy Of A Semiconductor Downturn

The current semiconductor downturn is largely attributable to the reversion of PC and Smartphone unit shipments to their pre-pandemic norms. We...

William Keating

Intel's GPU Guru Departs. Very Abruptly.

Intel's GPU/DPU data center roadmap was already "simplified" in back in January. Will what remains survive the ongoing cuts across the company?

William Keating

AMD Versus Intel. Spot The Differences?

Throughout 2022, Intel's leadership team made a series of very poor decisions which caused the company to significantly underperform across a wide...

William Keating

AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook

AMD's overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years. We expect AMD to prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 & 2024,...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy