Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For 2nm technology, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> should start <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  </li>
<li>TSMC's competitors, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.</li>
<li>To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.</li>
</ul>


For 2nm technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) should start Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  
TSMC's competitors, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.
To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Cerebras Systems  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cerebras Systems, a fast-growing maker of wafer-scale AI chips, which power the world’s largest supercomputers, will reveal IPO terms soon.</li>
<li>Given the company’s hyper-growth trajectory, $1B+ deal with UAE’s G42 and unique architecture, I expect Cerebras Systems is likely to get a premium valuation.  </li>
<li>The AI company plans to raise up to $1B while selling stockholders will offer additional Class A shares in this IPO.</li>
</ul>


Cerebras Systems, a fast-growing maker of wafer-scale AI chips, which power the world’s largest supercomputers, will reveal IPO terms soon.
Given the company’s hyper-growth trajectory, $1B+ deal with UAE’s G42 and unique architecture, I expect Cerebras Systems is likely to get a premium valuation.  
The AI company plans to raise up to $1B while selling stockholders will offer additional Class A shares in this IPO.


Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd-cec874fc-ef78-403b-8658-7a7298f0a28d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25241:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)</a> Q3 preliminary Operating Profit results is 12% below consensus. Company issues rare apology, effectively admitting technology competitiveness falls short.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> is powering ahead in HBM memory in our view, securing Nvidia 2025 allocations, and industry leading efficiencies.</li>
<li>A range of factors have created a great opportunity for SK Hynix investment given misunderstood industry dynamics and position at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).</a>
</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI) Q3 preliminary Operating Profit results is 12% below consensus. Company issues rare apology, effectively admitting technology competitiveness falls short.

SK Hynix (000660 KS) is powering ahead in HBM memory in our view, securing Nvidia 2025 allocations, and industry leading efficiencies.
A range of factors have created a great opportunity for SK Hynix investment given misunderstood industry dynamics and position at NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).



SAMSUNG: Less About Preliminary Results, More About the Tech Missteps. Samsung Pain Is HYNIX’s Gain

<ul>
<li>Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.</li>
<li>The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. </li>
<li>Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.</li>
</ul>


Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.
The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. 
Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.


Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

In my follow-up piece, I discuss Cerebras Systems valuation analysis, including peers, multiples and the company’s revenues forecast for 2024 and...

Andrei Zakharov

SAMSUNG: Less About Preliminary Results, More About the Tech Missteps. Samsung Pain Is HYNIX’s Gain

Samsung issues rare apology for Q3 profit miss. Admits to being behind in leading technologies. SK Hynix is ahead in HBM memory and set to win....

Neil Campling

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

Cerebras Systems, a manufacturer of the largest AI chip ever built and hardware company that launched supercomputers in the United States, filed...

Andrei Zakharov

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Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

​TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

In my follow-up piece, I discuss Cerebras Systems valuation analysis, including peers, multiples and the company’s revenues forecast for 2024 and...

Andrei Zakharov

SAMSUNG: Less About Preliminary Results, More About the Tech Missteps. Samsung Pain Is HYNIX’s Gain

Samsung issues rare apology for Q3 profit miss. Admits to being behind in leading technologies. SK Hynix is ahead in HBM memory and set to win....

Neil Campling

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

Cerebras Systems, a manufacturer of the largest AI chip ever built and hardware company that launched supercomputers in the United States, filed...

Andrei Zakharov

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...