Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!</li>
<li>Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. </li>
<li>Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.</li>
</ul>


Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!
Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. 
Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.


Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.</li>
<li>Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.</li>
<li>This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.</li>
</ul>


Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.
Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.
This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.


Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

<ul>
<li>For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.</li>
<li>For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.</li>
<li>The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25</li>
</ul>


For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.
For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.
The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25


2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.</li>
<li>The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.</li>
<li>TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.


TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

<ul><li>At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling a competitive race to launch AI-centric products for consumer use.</li><li>These new releases are set to enhance the capabilities of upcoming AI-integrated smartphones and PCs amid other applications, launching later this year.</li><li>We anticipate these innovations will spark consumer interest, encouraging purchases or upgrades, and contribute to healthy shipment growth, continuing the momentum from the seasonal restocking observed in the second half of 2023.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling a competitive race to launch AI-centric products for consumer use.These new releases are set to enhance the capabilities of upcoming AI-integrated smartphones and PCs amid other applications, launching later this year.We anticipate these innovations will spark consumer interest, encouraging purchases or upgrades, and contribute to healthy shipment growth, continuing the momentum from the seasonal restocking observed in the second half of 2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor – CES 2024 Wrap Up

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling...

CMB International

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Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

​TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor – CES 2024 Wrap Up

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling...

CMB International

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...