Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is a relatively high probability (70-80%+) that the FTCs in Europe and the United States will officially block the merger between Korean Air and Asiana Airlines in 2H 2023. </li>
<li>This could result in the Korea Development Bank (KDB) selling its 10.58% stake in Hanjin KAL Corp which could result in a fight for the control of Hanjin Kal.</li>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Hanjin Kal suggests NAV of 3.8 trillion won or implied target price of 57,259 won per share, representing 13% upside from current levels.</li>
</ul>


There is a relatively high probability (70-80%+) that the FTCs in Europe and the United States will officially block the merger between Korean Air and Asiana Airlines in 2H 2023. 
This could result in the Korea Development Bank (KDB) selling its 10.58% stake in Hanjin KAL Corp which could result in a fight for the control of Hanjin Kal.
Our NAV analysis of Hanjin Kal suggests NAV of 3.8 trillion won or implied target price of 57,259 won per share, representing 13% upside from current levels.


Hanjin Kal: Fight For Control Amid FTC Regulatory Concerns of Korean Air & Asiana Airlines Merger

<ul>
<li>There have been increasing local news flows about KDB's potential "Plan B" for Asiana Airlines in case the merger between Asiana Airlines and Korean Air Lines is finally cancelled.</li>
<li>The final decisions by the European and US regulators on whether to pass/block this merger are likely to take place in 4Q 2023. </li>
<li>The higher probability scenarios are for one or both of these regulators to block this deal. As such, KDB will need to come up with Plan B.</li>
</ul>


There have been increasing local news flows about KDB's potential "Plan B" for Asiana Airlines in case the merger between Asiana Airlines and Korean Air Lines is finally cancelled.
The final decisions by the European and US regulators on whether to pass/block this merger are likely to take place in 4Q 2023. 
The higher probability scenarios are for one or both of these regulators to block this deal. As such, KDB will need to come up with Plan B.


What Is KDB's Plan B for Asiana Airlines?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.</li>
<li>Historically, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>'s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. </li>
</ul>



Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.
Historically, Canon (7751 JP)'s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 


Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Skymark Airlines / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skymark-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20430:1" rel="noopener">Skymark Airlines (9204 JP)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$235m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about peer comparison and valuations.</li>
</ul>



Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$235m in its Japan IPO.
Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about peer comparison and valuations.


Skymark Airlines IPO - Peer Comparison & Valuation - Asking Too Much for Clipped Wings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skymark-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20430:1" rel="noopener">Skymark Airlines (9204 JP)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$218m in its upcoming Japan IPO.  </li>
<li>Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company's past performance.</li>
</ul>



Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$218m in its upcoming Japan IPO.  
Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.
In this note, we talk about the company's past performance.


Skymark Airlines Pre-IPO - Highly Leveraged with a History of Bankruptcy

South Korea

Asiana Airlines, Inc. provides air cargo and passenger transportation services throughout South Korea and overseas.  The Company also offers airline catering and on-flight duty free shopping services and operates aircraft leasing business.

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Asiana Airlines (020560 KS)

Hanjin Kal: Fight For Control Amid FTC Regulatory Concerns of Korean Air & Asiana Airlines Merger

Hanjin Kal's shares rose 27% today to 52,500 won yesterday. Some investors believe that FTCs in Europe and the United States will officially block...

Douglas Kim

What Is KDB's Plan B for Asiana Airlines?

There have been increasing local news flows about KDB's potential "Plan B" for Asiana Airlines in case the merger between Asiana Airlines and...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Skymark Airlines IPO - Peer Comparison & Valuation - Asking Too Much for Clipped Wings

Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$235m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about peer comparison and valuations.

Ethan Aw

Skymark Airlines Pre-IPO - Highly Leveraged with a History of Bankruptcy

Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$218m in its upcoming Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the company's past...

Ethan Aw

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