Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

SK Group's management must be feeling so sour about AT&amp;T &amp; Time Warner deal. I do not intend to talk about the validity of Korean FTC's verdict on SKT-CJH merger. Instead, what I intend to highlight is the sense of urgency that SK Group's management may be having, particularly when they see their global telecom peers are just continuously making big acquisitions in the era of telecom-cable-Internet convergence. What is true at this point is that SK Group's top management and Chairman Chey have indeed discussed about SKT split-up during the group's seminar last week. However, what is also true that SK Group is publicly denying the possibility of SKT split-up, which Korean media have reported.

SK Group's management must be feeling so sour about AT&amp;T &amp; Time Warner deal. I do not intend to talk about the validity of Korean FTC's verdict on SKT-CJH merger. Instead, what I intend to highlight is the sense of urgency that SK Group's management may be having, particularly when they see their global telecom peers are just continuously making big acquisitions in the era of telecom-cable-Internet convergence. What is true at this point is that SK Group's top management and Chairman Chey have indeed discussed about SKT split-up during the group's seminar last week. However, what is also true that SK Group is publicly denying the possibility of SKT split-up, which Korean media have reported.

Why I Believe SK Telecom Split-Up Will Happen Soon

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive summary</h2><ul>
<li>DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. </li>
<li>
After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…</li>
</ul>

Executive summary
DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. 

After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…


Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Last week, SK Group's top executives (including Chairman Chey Tae-won) have gathered and discussed on key issues including SK Group's holdco restructuring. This so-called "SK Top Management Seminar" were held for three days from Wednesday to Friday last week. One of the key issues discussed during this seminar was SK Group's restructuring. (In addition, SK Group's Chairman Chey emphasized the need to pull off several mega acquisitions.) What would this mean? Finally, SK Group seems to embark on…

Last week, SK Group's top executives (including Chairman Chey Tae-won) have gathered and discussed on key issues including SK Group's holdco restructuring. This so-called "SK Top Management Seminar" were held for three days from Wednesday to Friday last week. One of the key issues discussed during this seminar was SK Group's restructuring. (In addition, SK Group's Chairman Chey emphasized the need to pull off several mega acquisitions.) What would this mean? Finally, SK Group seems to embark on…

SK Restructuring Seems Imminent - SK Holdco Is Up Nearly 4% Today

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

In this report, we predict which technology companies will be targeted over the next two years, who is likely to acquire them and why.Some of the investment themes driving these deals include artificial intelligence, the internet of things, MedTech, 3D printing, internet TV, virtual and augmented reality, robotics, cloud computing and the race between the US and China to dominate the next generation of advanced technologies.

In this report, we predict which technology companies will be targeted over the next two years, who is likely to acquire them and why.Some of the investment themes driving these deals include artificial intelligence, the internet of things, MedTech, 3D printing, internet TV, virtual and augmented reality, robotics, cloud computing and the race between the US and China to dominate the next generation of advanced technologies.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Executive summary</h2><ul>
<li>
Results/guidance beat: TSMC reports 7% better 3Q16 EPS than Bloomberg consensus' and guides 7% better 4Q16 sales and 1.6-1.7ppts higher margins. Thus, Bloomberg consensus should raise its 4Q16 EPS forecast by more than 10%. 
</li>
<li>
More positive on smartphone IC demand: TSMC says better 4Q16 demand from smartphone and PC customers and looks for 5% CAGR for smartphone market in next five years, vs. our expectation of 0-5% CAGR.</li>
<li>
Slower 10nm ramp but more customers want fan out: TSMC changes…</li>
</ul>

Executive summary

Results/guidance beat: TSMC reports 7% better 3Q16 EPS than Bloomberg consensus' and guides 7% better 4Q16 sales and 1.6-1.7ppts higher margins. Thus, Bloomberg consensus should raise its 4Q16 EPS forecast by more than 10%. 


More positive on smartphone IC demand: TSMC says better 4Q16 demand from smartphone and PC customers and looks for 5% CAGR for smartphone market in next five years, vs. our expectation of 0-5% CAGR.

Slower 10nm ramp but more customers want fan out: TSMC changes…


TSMC - 1H17 Unknown After Apple Drives 2H16 Beat

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Why I Believe SK Telecom Split-Up Will Happen Soon

SK Group's management must be feeling so sour about AT&T & Time Warner deal. I do not intend to talk about the validity of Korean FTC's...

Sanghyun Park

Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Executive summary DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another...

Andrew Lu

SK Restructuring Seems Imminent - SK Holdco Is Up Nearly 4% Today

Last week, SK Group's top executives (including Chairman Chey Tae-won) have gathered and discussed on key issues including SK Group's holdco...

Sanghyun Park

Tech M&A Targets

In this report, we predict which technology companies will be targeted over the next two years, who is likely to acquire them and why.Some of the...

CM Research

TSMC - 1H17 Unknown After Apple Drives 2H16 Beat

Executive summary Results/guidance beat: TSMC reports 7% better 3Q16 EPS than Bloomberg consensus' and guides 7% better 4Q16 sales and 1.6-1.7ppts...

Andrew Lu

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52-week Range

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