Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.</li>
<li>For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.</li>
<li>The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25</li>
</ul>


For 2023, Smartphone unit shipments amounted to 1.17 billion units,  a 3.2% YoY decline, far better than we expected at the beginning of last year.
For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250 million units was in 2006.
The weaker than anticipated PC TAM is a headwind for Intel heading into earnings and Q124 guidance on January 25


2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.</li>
<li>FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005</li>
<li>Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.
FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005
Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. 


Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was "lost" on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.</li>
<li>Given AEM's stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? </li>
<li>4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.</li>
</ul>


AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was "lost" on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.
Given AEM's stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? 
4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.


AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  </li>
<li>We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.</li>
<li>The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  </li>
</ul>


The Globalwafers (6488 TT) outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  
We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.
The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling a competitive race to launch AI-centric products for consumer use.</li><li>These new releases are set to enhance the capabilities of upcoming AI-integrated smartphones and PCs amid other applications, launching later this year.</li><li>We anticipate these innovations will spark consumer interest, encouraging purchases or upgrades, and contribute to healthy shipment growth, continuing the momentum from the seasonal restocking observed in the second half of 2023.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling a competitive race to launch AI-centric products for consumer use.These new releases are set to enhance the capabilities of upcoming AI-integrated smartphones and PCs amid other applications, launching later this year.We anticipate these innovations will spark consumer interest, encouraging purchases or upgrades, and contribute to healthy shipment growth, continuing the momentum from the seasonal restocking observed in the second half of 2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

AEM's credibility with investors took a blow when it reported that some of its inventory "fell off the truck" during transport from Singapore to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

Globalwafers' 1Q24F outlook may have a slight decline in revenue, and a positive trend is expected from 2Q24F. Overcoming the constraint in the...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor – CES 2024 Wrap Up

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling...

CMB International

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2023 PC Unit Shipments Disappoint While Smartphone Fared Better Than Expected

For 2023, PC unit shipments amounted to 241.8 million units, a 14.8% YoY decline, worse than expected. Last time annual shipments fell below 250...

William Keating

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang...

AEM's credibility with investors took a blow when it reported that some of its inventory "fell off the truck" during transport from Singapore to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

​Globalwafers' 1Q24F outlook may have a slight decline in revenue, and a positive trend is expected from 2Q24F. Overcoming the constraint in the...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor – CES 2024 Wrap Up

At Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, leading tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm unveiled their latest offerings, signaling...

CMB International

Globalwafers' 1Q24F outlook may have a slight decline in revenue, and a positive trend is expected from 2Q24F. Overcoming the constraint in the...