Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In 3Q Honda generated revenue of ¥3,710bn (+1.6% QoQ, -1.0% YoY) and operating profit of ¥278bn (for an OPM of 7.5% compared to the OPMs of 4.5% and 7.7% respectively in 3QFY20 and 2QFY21). Revenue was 2.2% higher than consensus estimates, while operating profit beat consensus by ¥101bn (58% higher). OP guidance was raised by 24% but revenue guidance was reduced by 1%. This is a slight concern as Honda may be focusing excessively on cost control and this could hurt future top line growth.</p>

In 3Q Honda generated revenue of ¥3,710bn (+1.6% QoQ, -1.0% YoY) and operating profit of ¥278bn (for an OPM of 7.5% compared to the OPMs of 4.5% and 7.7% respectively in 3QFY20 and 2QFY21). Revenue was 2.2% higher than consensus estimates, while operating profit beat consensus by ¥101bn (58% higher). OP guidance was raised by 24% but revenue guidance was reduced by 1%. This is a slight concern as Honda may be focusing excessively on cost control and this could hurt future top line growth.

Honda – Strong Margins but Downward Volume Guidance Revision Leaves a Bad Impression

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 9th FEBRUARY •</strong></p></div><div><p>Of yesterday's 246 results announcements, 70% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 7.3% on average and a 1.7 point decline in operating margins. 14% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  75% of the 119 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +5.0 points.</p></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Tuesday's 'best' larger-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>; the 'worst' were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a>.  For more, see the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/187/836/original/2021-02-10_06-35-27.png?1612906548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="187836"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/187/837/original/2021-02-10_06-37-11.png?1612906645" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="187837"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/187/838/original/2021-02-10_06-37-54.png?1612906686" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="187838"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/187/839/original/2021-02-10_06-38-45.png?1612906738" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="187839"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">   Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SUMMARY - 9th FEBRUARY •Of yesterday's 246 results announcements, 70% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 7.3% on average and a 1.7 point decline in operating margins. 14% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  75% of the 119 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively, and the average Forecast/Revision score was +5.0 points.• BEST &amp; WORST •Tuesday's 'best' larger-cap announcements came from Shimano (7309 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP); the 'worst' were from Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) and Nexon (3659 JP).  For more, see the DETAIL section below.   Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 02/09 - Shimano, Honda, Japan Tobacco

<p>There has been a lot of newsprint lately regarding Apple seeking partners to tie-up with to produce EVs. Bloomberg reports discussion with at least six automakers including Hyundai and Japanese manufacturers, though timelines for launch are still far out at about five years. Bloomberg’s latest report suggests that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/apple-talks-with-hyundai-kia-on-electric-car-paused-recently" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talks with Hyundai have been paused</a> so the question is whether one of the Japanese automakers might step in instead.</p>

There has been a lot of newsprint lately regarding Apple seeking partners to tie-up with to produce EVs. Bloomberg reports discussion with at least six automakers including Hyundai and Japanese manufacturers, though timelines for launch are still far out at about five years. Bloomberg’s latest report suggests that talks with Hyundai have been paused so the question is whether one of the Japanese automakers might step in instead.

Does an Apple Tie-Up Make Sense for J-Autos?

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> announced its Q3FY21 earnings yesterday. It reported highest ever quarterly revenue. Key positive surprises were market share gain in the export market (90bp gain) and 25%+ growth in the spare parts business. Hero Motocorp also did well in the domestic market with 190bp market share gain. This coupled with low base effect helped Hero Motocorp post strong earnings. Revenues grew 40% YoY, EBITDA grew 36% YoY while PAT grew 23% YoY (losses at couple of associates tapered down the PAT growth). EBITDA margins at 14.5% came in within the medium-term guidance of 14-16% range.</p>

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) announced its Q3FY21 earnings yesterday. It reported highest ever quarterly revenue. Key positive surprises were market share gain in the export market (90bp gain) and 25%+ growth in the spare parts business. Hero Motocorp also did well in the domestic market with 190bp market share gain. This coupled with low base effect helped Hero Motocorp post strong earnings. Revenues grew 40% YoY, EBITDA grew 36% YoY while PAT grew 23% YoY (losses at couple of associates tapered down the PAT growth). EBITDA margins at 14.5% came in within the medium-term guidance of 14-16% range.

Hero Motocorp Q3FY21 Earnings - Highest Ever Quarterly Revenue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> to sell more shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>,  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) to sell more shares of Tencent Holdings (700 HK),  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. 




Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent and PCCW Ltd (8 HK), are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Naspers' Unsustainable Look-Through

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

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Honda Motor (7267 JP)

Honda – Strong Margins but Downward Volume Guidance Revision Leaves a Bad Impression

Honda results continued a trend of general strength in the auto sector but a slight concern is that prioritisation of cost cutting could lead to...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 02/09 - Shimano, Honda, Japan Tobacco

Of yesterday's 246 results announcements, 70% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 7.3% on average and a...

Campbell Gunn

Does an Apple Tie-Up Make Sense for J-Autos?

In the search for potential suitors for Apple's entry into the EV space we examine the likelihood of the major Japanese auto manufacturers...

Mio Kato

Hero Motocorp Q3FY21 Earnings - Highest Ever Quarterly Revenue

Robust demand in domestic markets coupled with exponential growth potential across exports, spare parts in conjunction with margin expansion...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

StubWorld: Naspers' Unsustainable Look-Through

Long Naspers vs Tencent, is the obvious trade at the current look-through value. IF Naspers+Prosus decides to sell some more Tencent, expect...

David Blennerhassett

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