Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this report, we have crawled through over ten years of technical publications to analyze the Fuel Cell space. The top five companies we screen from a technology perspective are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-motors-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1" rel="noopener">General Motors Co (GM US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloom-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34062:1" rel="noopener">Bloom Energy Corp (BE US)</a> Technologically automakers (Japanese in particular) dominate the fuel cell sector. Among pure plays, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloom-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34062:1" rel="noopener">Bloom Energy Corp (BE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ballard-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25813:1" rel="noopener">Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN)</a> are best positioned and perhaps the only ones who come somewhat close to the auto OEMs from a technology perspective. Some lesser-known private players that have gained traction in technological terms over the last five years are Dioxide Materials, 24M Technologies, and Bayotech.Currently, batteries have a decisive advantage over fuel cells, and as a business proposition, fuel cells have so far mostly failed to live up to their technological promise. However, fuel cells using hydrogen generated from renewables offer a much lower environmental impact across their lifecycle. This sustains investor interest in the hope that system price declines, economies of scale, lower cost of renewable energy generation, and maturation as a business could make FC competitive longer term.

In this report, we have crawled through over ten years of technical publications to analyze the Fuel Cell space. The top five companies we screen from a technology perspective are Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), General Motors Co (GM US), and Bloom Energy Corp (BE US) Technologically automakers (Japanese in particular) dominate the fuel cell sector. Among pure plays, Bloom Energy Corp (BE US) and Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN) are best positioned and perhaps the only ones who come somewhat close to the auto OEMs from a technology perspective. Some lesser-known private players that have gained traction in technological terms over the last five years are Dioxide Materials, 24M Technologies, and Bayotech.Currently, batteries have a decisive advantage over fuel cells, and as a business proposition, fuel cells have so far mostly failed to live up to their technological promise. However, fuel cells using hydrogen generated from renewables offer a much lower environmental impact across their lifecycle. This sustains investor interest in the hope that system price declines, economies of scale, lower cost of renewable energy generation, and maturation as a business could make FC competitive longer term.

Stock Ideas From Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look into Fuel Cells

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Honda’s 2QFY22 results were slightly weak with revenue down 5.0% QoQ and 6.8% YoY and OPM falling to 5.8% from 6.8% last quarter. Despite that weakness its downward revision was probably unnecessary. Despite THAT we see little that is compelling here relative to Toyota’s much more robust momentum.

Honda’s 2QFY22 results were slightly weak with revenue down 5.0% QoQ and 6.8% YoY and OPM falling to 5.8% from 6.8% last quarter. Despite that weakness its downward revision was probably unnecessary. Despite THAT we see little that is compelling here relative to Toyota’s much more robust momentum.

Honda – Unnecessary Downgrade but Not Especially Cheap

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Honda-and-GM-to-share-EV-platform-for-lower-cost-North-American-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> today that Honda would be aiming to have 50% content sharing by value with its partner GM for EVs manufactured for the North American market. This arrangement was originally discussed back in April and includes Honda utilising GM’s platform for two large models (a Honda and an Acura) and sharing its own midsize EV architecture for GM once it is ready in the second half of the decade.

The Nikkei reported today that Honda would be aiming to have 50% content sharing by value with its partner GM for EVs manufactured for the North American market. This arrangement was originally discussed back in April and includes Honda utilising GM’s platform for two large models (a Honda and an Acura) and sharing its own midsize EV architecture for GM once it is ready in the second half of the decade.

Honda – Interpreting the Evolving GM Partnership for EVs

Honda reported its 1QFY22 results on Wednesday and posted revenue of posted revenue of ¥3,584bn (-1.3% QoQ, +68.7% YoY) and operating profit of ¥243bn (for an OPM of 6.8% compared to the OPM of -5.4% and 5.9% respectively in 1QFY21 and 4QFY21). Revenue was 6.2% higher than consensus estimates, while operating profit beat consensus by ¥133bn (+122%). Honda revised its full year OP guidance for FY21 up by 18.2%, helping it avoid the sell off on good news as with Toyota and Mazda.

Honda reported its 1QFY22 results on Wednesday and posted revenue of posted revenue of ¥3,584bn (-1.3% QoQ, +68.7% YoY) and operating profit of ¥243bn (for an OPM of 6.8% compared to the OPM of -5.4% and 5.9% respectively in 1QFY21 and 4QFY21). Revenue was 6.2% higher than consensus estimates, while operating profit beat consensus by ¥133bn (+122%). Honda revised its full year OP guidance for FY21 up by 18.2%, helping it avoid the sell off on good news as with Toyota and Mazda.

Honda – Strong Start as Developed Market Motorcycles Contribute

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

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Honda Motor (7267 JP)

Stock Ideas From Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look into Fuel Cells

Fuel cells have a place in the green energy market but with poor economics, they have a problem finding where that is. Japanese automakers...

Pyari Menon

Honda – Unnecessary Downgrade but Not Especially Cheap

Despite 2Q weakness Honda's downward revision was probably unnecessary. Despite THAT we see little that is compelling here relative to Toyota’s...

Mio Kato

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above...

Mio Kato

Honda – Interpreting the Evolving GM Partnership for EVs

Honda's EV alliance with GM continues to deepen but is this a sign of Honda's full commitment to an EV shift in the US or just a risk hedge?

Mio Kato

Honda – Strong Start as Developed Market Motorcycles Contribute

Honda blew out 1Q OP by 122% and revised up guidance allowing the stock to post a small gain. The market remains overly cautious on the sector in...

Mio Kato

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