Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Sumishin Net Bank  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is not a typo: SBI Sumishin Net Bank saw loans up 21% YoY in 1Q24, operating in Japan</li>
<li>The bank has achieved cost scale, with acquisition cost per account a fraction of 2 yrs ago</li>
<li>Credit quality remains exceptional, amongst best in Japan, with 0.06% NPL ratio in 1Q24</li>
</ul>


This is not a typo: SBI Sumishin Net Bank saw loans up 21% YoY in 1Q24, operating in Japan
The bank has achieved cost scale, with acquisition cost per account a fraction of 2 yrs ago
Credit quality remains exceptional, amongst best in Japan, with 0.06% NPL ratio in 1Q24


SBI Sumishin Net Bank - Dramatic ROA Expansion, Steady & Strong, Profit & Loan Growth, ROE at 19%

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.</li>
<li>Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a>, though the changes only start in October 2026. </li>
<li>The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. </li>
</ul>


JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 


TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.</li>
<li>SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.
SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Lock-Up - A US$1bn Lockup Release, Will Sell a Little at Some Point

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks.  </li>
<li>The company's cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs. </li>
<li>Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks.  
The company's cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs. 
Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA. 


Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

<ul>
<li>There are few, if any banks, in Japan that compare with Rakuten's 65% loan growth</li>
<li>The newly listed interbank stands out with exceptional ROE, not from leverage</li>
<li>Credit metrics remain strong, with NPL cover especially high vs peers</li>
</ul>


There are few, if any banks, in Japan that compare with Rakuten's 65% loan growth
The newly listed interbank stands out with exceptional ROE, not from leverage
Credit metrics remain strong, with NPL cover especially high vs peers


Rakuten Bank - In Japan With 65% Loan Growth

Japan

SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Ltd. offers general banking services. The Company provides transfer accounts, deposits, currency savings, mortgages, net loans, investment trusts, insurance products, and other banking services. SBI Sumishin Net Bank offers services to individuals and businesses.

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SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)

SBI Sumishin Net Bank - Dramatic ROA Expansion, Steady & Strong, Profit & Loan Growth, ROE at 19%

With Brian Freitas research on new TOPIX changes, SBI Sumishin Net Bank is one of the greatest beneficiaries, a bank in Japan which stands out well...

Daniel Tabbush

TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

JPX has commenced a market consultation that could result in 38 adds and 447 deletions for the index in Oct 2026. There are a lot of high impact...

Brian Freitas

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Lock-Up - A US$1bn Lockup Release, Will Sell a Little at Some Point

SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

Japan Post Bank is more than ever like a closed-end mutual fund, which is hardly seeing any line items drive profit upward other than stock sales,...

Daniel Tabbush

Rakuten Bank - In Japan With 65% Loan Growth

With corporate news of bank integration, see comments from Travis Lundy, it is worthwhile to understand Rakuten Bank's unique position, character,...

Daniel Tabbush

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