Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The global HRTech market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2022-2028E to US$35.68bn driven by increased investment in product and technology development.</li>
<li>We have chosen four companies that will have an exciting year ahead (either bullish or bearish) and have discussed their business models, key drivers, fundamentals and their valuation.</li>
<li>We have chosen two stocks from the US (Ceridian and Automatic Data Processing) and two from Japan (Recruit and Visional) with a market capitalisation of &gt;$1bn and ADTV&gt;$1m.</li>
</ul>


The global HRTech market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2022-2028E to US$35.68bn driven by increased investment in product and technology development.
We have chosen four companies that will have an exciting year ahead (either bullish or bearish) and have discussed their business models, key drivers, fundamentals and their valuation.
We have chosen two stocks from the US (Ceridian and Automatic Data Processing) and two from Japan (Recruit and Visional) with a market capitalisation of &gt;$1bn and ADTV&gt;$1m.


HRTech Sector Series: Changing HR Landscape Post-Covid Create Opportunities

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.</li>
<li>4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.</li>
<li>With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.
4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.
With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.


2022 High Conviction - Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> reported 4Q and full-year FY03/2022 results today. Revenue grew 23.9% YoY to JPY759.9bn while OP more than doubled to JPY45.4bn during 4QFY03/2022.</li>
<li>Full-Year revenues grew 26.5% YoY to JPY2,871.7bn which was about 3.0% above the upper range of guidance (JPY2,700-2,800bn) while OP of JPY378.9bn was within the guidance of JPY350-380bn.</li>
<li>Though full-year results were strong, 4QFY03/2022 results show that the company’s earnings have begun to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets with Covid conditions easing off.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY03/2022 results today. Revenue grew 23.9% YoY to JPY759.9bn while OP more than doubled to JPY45.4bn during 4QFY03/2022.
Full-Year revenues grew 26.5% YoY to JPY2,871.7bn which was about 3.0% above the upper range of guidance (JPY2,700-2,800bn) while OP of JPY378.9bn was within the guidance of JPY350-380bn.
Though full-year results were strong, 4QFY03/2022 results show that the company’s earnings have begun to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets with Covid conditions easing off.


Conviction Call Recruit: All Good Things Must Come to an End

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>FY3/22 EBITDA rose 96% driven by the recovery in the global labour market. Macro conditions suggest the coming year will be less exciting </li>
<li>EBITDA is expected to rise just 2% this year, adjusting for changes in stock-based comp </li>
<li>However, the 32% decline in the stock price YTD suggests the market is on top of the weaker outlook. <strong>We see 40% upside to the stock price</strong> </li>
</ul>


FY3/22 EBITDA rose 96% driven by the recovery in the global labour market. Macro conditions suggest the coming year will be less exciting 
EBITDA is expected to rise just 2% this year, adjusting for changes in stock-based comp 
However, the 32% decline in the stock price YTD suggests the market is on top of the weaker outlook. We see 40% upside to the stock price 


Recruit (6098 JP) | Too Conservative on Labour Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPOs front, LIC's lists tomorrow, while Delhivery's bookbuild wasn't great.</li>
<li>There were no major placements this week, with even Air New Zealand failing to hold its deal price.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPOs front, LIC's lists tomorrow, while Delhivery's bookbuild wasn't great.
There were no major placements this week, with even Air New Zealand failing to hold its deal price.


ECM Weekly (15th May 22) - LIC, ThaiBev, Delhivery, One Store, Yunkang, VistaREIT, Ngern Tid Lor

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

HRTech Sector Series: Changing HR Landscape Post-Covid Create Opportunities

The global HRTech market has been undergoing rapid changes and in this insight we have discussed 4 companies that will have an exciting year ahead...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2022 High Conviction - Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets

Recruit Holdings’ shares have declined 44.35% YTD, With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside as earnings started to weaken with...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Conviction Call Recruit: All Good Things Must Come to an End

Though full-year results were strong, 4QFY03/2022 results show that the company’s earnings have begun to weaken with normalisation of recruitment...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Recruit (6098 JP) | Too Conservative on Labour Outlook

Recruit is a beneficiary of a tight market for global labour. Management has guided for a slowdown, but not a collapse. The stock price has...

Mark Chadwick

ECM Weekly (15th May 22) - LIC, ThaiBev, Delhivery, One Store, Yunkang, VistaREIT, Ngern Tid Lor

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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