Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recruit's Q3 results are unlikely to move the market. Full year guidance slightly above consensus estimates</li>
<li>Much of the bad news on the labour market and interest rates is now discounted in current valuations</li>
<li>We remain bullish. At 23x PE the stock is trading at a deep discount to its historical 30x</li>
</ul>


Recruit's Q3 results are unlikely to move the market. Full year guidance slightly above consensus estimates
Much of the bad news on the labour market and interest rates is now discounted in current valuations
We remain bullish. At 23x PE the stock is trading at a deep discount to its historical 30x


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A little over two weeks ago, western media outlets <strong><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ac43e9dd-1e83-47c7-9401-112964465545" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a></strong> "sources familiar with the matter" said Elliott Management had built a "significant" stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>DNP has been a "value name" for years. And years. Lots of cash, lots of real estate, and lots of cross-holdings. DNP had a plan to sell crossholdings, slowly.</li>
<li>DNP <em>had</em> planned a March 9 presentation of its new MTMP. Elliott, reportedly with a little less than 5%, wanted faster. A few weeks later, DNP has responded with faster. </li>
</ul>


A little over two weeks ago, western media outlets reported "sources familiar with the matter" said Elliott Management had built a "significant" stake in Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). 
DNP has been a "value name" for years. And years. Lots of cash, lots of real estate, and lots of cross-holdings. DNP had a plan to sell crossholdings, slowly.
DNP had planned a March 9 presentation of its new MTMP. Elliott, reportedly with a little less than 5%, wanted faster. A few weeks later, DNP has responded with faster. 


Dai Nippon Printing (7912) - Activism Results Going Forward Are Complicated

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -1.1% as Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; All 11 Sectors -ve as Beta Sold; ALPHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; Disney +8% after-hours with earnings beat/job cuts. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.41; Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound;  EARNINGS: Pan Pac/SMM Strong vs weak Subaru which -ve production cut; Toyota out today. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. EPIC fail from Alphabet's "BARD". Aren't these events supposed to  be choreographed ????</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -1.1% as Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; All 11 Sectors -ve as Beta Sold; ALPHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; Disney +8% after-hours with earnings beat/job cuts. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.41; Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound;  EARNINGS: Pan Pac/SMM Strong vs weak Subaru which -ve production cut; Toyota out today. 
DAILY NUGGETS. EPIC fail from Alphabet's "BARD". Aren't these events supposed to  be choreographed ????


Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic "BARD" Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>This is the Third of HRTech sector series and the four companies that we have covered under this series have since reported earnings.</li>
<li>HRTech market has undergone rapid changes and 2023 will bring in more value to the recent transformation such as Hybrid work models and metaverse that the industry has witnessed.</li>
<li>Of the four companies, except for Recruit, other three continues to perform positively with Visional recording the highest growth among the four.</li>
</ul>


This is the Third of HRTech sector series and the four companies that we have covered under this series have since reported earnings.
HRTech market has undergone rapid changes and 2023 will bring in more value to the recent transformation such as Hybrid work models and metaverse that the industry has witnessed.
Of the four companies, except for Recruit, other three continues to perform positively with Visional recording the highest growth among the four.


HRTech Sector Series: Hybrid Work Models and Metaverse to See More Prominence in 2023

<ul>
<li>It is time we review our 2022 high conviction call. Our conviction short Recruit has fallen 41.5% since we made our call on the stock on 01st December 2022.</li>
<li>Though Staffing and Matching &amp; Solutions businesses have bounced back post-Covid, HR Tech biz’s earnings have started to fall with weakening of labour markets.</li>
<li>With global recruitment markets facing challenges with weakening of global economies, we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> 's shares have further room to fall in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


It is time we review our 2022 high conviction call. Our conviction short Recruit has fallen 41.5% since we made our call on the stock on 01st December 2022.
Though Staffing and Matching &amp; Solutions businesses have bounced back post-Covid, HR Tech biz’s earnings have started to fall with weakening of labour markets.
With global recruitment markets facing challenges with weakening of global economies, we think Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) 's shares have further room to fall in 2023E.


2022 High Conviction Recruit: More Room for Shares to Fall

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

Recruit (6098 JP) | A Soft-Landing?

The current valuation of 23x PE is way below the median level of 30x. Earnings growth may be unexciting this year, but we think the market has...

Mark Chadwick

Dai Nippon Printing (7912) - Activism Results Going Forward Are Complicated

Elliott built a stake in perennial deep-value name Dai Nippon Printing. DNP responded by saying it will take more aggressive capital action. The...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic "BARD" Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss

Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; ALHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; . Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound; JAPAN EARNINGS: Pan Pac...

Mark Chadwick

HRTech Sector Series: Hybrid Work Models and Metaverse to See More Prominence in 2023

This is the 3rd of HRTech sector series. The market in 2023 will witness more value coming from recent transformations such as Hybrid work models...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2022 High Conviction Recruit: More Room for Shares to Fall

It is time we review our high conviction short for 2022. Recruit's share price is down more than 42% and with labour markets weakening, we think...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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