IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Olam Group set to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> as the listed company entity on 16 March. It consists of Olam Food Ingredients (ofi), Olam Agri and Olam International (OIL).</li>
<li>The complicated restructuring exercise which was announced in January 2020 is driven by the Board’s intent to unlock long-term shareholder value. </li>
<li>Our SoTP valuation is S$2.36 per share, which is a 34% upside to the last trading price of S$1.76 per share (9 March prior to the suspension of the shares).</li>
</ul>


Olam Group set to replace Olam International (OLAM SP) as the listed company entity on 16 March. It consists of Olam Food Ingredients (ofi), Olam Agri and Olam International (OIL).
The complicated restructuring exercise which was announced in January 2020 is driven by the Board’s intent to unlock long-term shareholder value. 
Our SoTP valuation is S$2.36 per share, which is a 34% upside to the last trading price of S$1.76 per share (9 March prior to the suspension of the shares).


Olam Group: Restructuring to Unlock Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The High Court of Singapore has now sanctioned the proposed restructuring of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> and the proposed listing of OFI Group.</li>
<li>Entitlement in respect of the Scheme will close on the 11 March. The last day of trading is the 9 March. The listing of OFI is expected in the 2Q22.</li>
<li>With many grain/agri prices touching record highs amid war in Ukraine, boasting an upstream supply is not a bad thing. But the timing of OFI's listing could work both ways.</li>
</ul>


The High Court of Singapore has now sanctioned the proposed restructuring of Olam International (OLAM SP) and the proposed listing of OFI Group.
Entitlement in respect of the Scheme will close on the 11 March. The last day of trading is the 9 March. The listing of OFI is expected in the 2Q22.
With many grain/agri prices touching record highs amid war in Ukraine, boasting an upstream supply is not a bad thing. But the timing of OFI's listing could work both ways.


Olam's Demerger: The Sum Is Probably Greater Than The Whole

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN)</a> is up ~70% since its listing two days ago. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s shares remain largely unchanged since Adani Wilma's IPO was officially floated. </li>
<li>90%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd-8e397b7b-30b8-4284-afc1-e1dc799b2e5c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)</a> is down 52% in the past year, but trading in line with its average forward multiples since listing. </li>
</ul>



Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN) is up ~70% since its listing two days ago. 

Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s shares remain largely unchanged since Adani Wilma's IPO was officially floated. 
90%-Held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH) is down 52% in the past year, but trading in line with its average forward multiples since listing. 


Wilmar Largely Unchanged As Wilmar Adani's IPO Surges

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> is coming up "expensive" on my stub monitor, yet still trades at a material 65% discount to NAV. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold of at least 20%.</li>
</ul>



Wilmar International (WIL SP) is coming up "expensive" on my stub monitor, yet still trades at a material 65% discount to NAV. 
Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Wilmar Gains Ahead Of Adani Wilmar IPO

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/967/original/image_58873528221633585900666.png?1633585903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233967"></figure>Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam International (OLAM SP) has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

United States

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products. The Company processes oilseeds, corn, milo, oats, barley, peanuts, and wheat. Archer-Daniels-Midland also processes produce products which have primarily two end uses including food or feed ingredients.

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Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)

Olam Group: Restructuring to Unlock Value

Olam Group set to replace Olam International as the listed company entity on 16 March. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.36 per share, which is a 34%...

Arun George

Olam's Demerger: The Sum Is Probably Greater Than The Whole

With many grain/agri prices touching record highs amid war in Ukraine, having an upstream supply is not a bad thing. But the timing of OFI's...

David Blennerhassett

Wilmar Largely Unchanged As Wilmar Adani's IPO Surges

Wilmar is relatively inexpensive, even taking into account its cross-border, possibly-difficult-to-short subsidiary. Management's average buyback...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Wilmar Gains Ahead Of Adani Wilmar IPO

I'd buy Wilmar here. Management's average buyback price since April is $4.44/share. I see a more realistic discount of ~50% - where it traded on...

David Blennerhassett

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

Olam is set to see a significant increase in corporate activity in 1H22. Investors would be wise to position in the stock before the newsflow hits...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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