Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-m3-2413-partial-tob-as-pasona-sells-control-of-benefit-one-2412-really-interesting-dynamics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-m3-2413-partial-tob-as-pasona-sells-control-of-benefit-one-2412-really-interesting-dynamics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117493" rel="noopener"></a>, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).</li>
<li>That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.</li>
<li>Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. </li>
</ul>


As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-May 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
In this insight, we take a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-May 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231017540912/en/Palliser-Capital-Responds-to-Media-Article-Regarding-Investment-in-Keisei-Electric-Railway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) on well-known "stub trade" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a stake of about 1.6%. </li>
<li>The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.</li>
<li>I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423026545/ja/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423405941/en/Palliser-Capital-Proposes-Advisory-Resolution-to-Give-Shareholders-a-Voice-at-Keisei%E2%80%99s-Forthcoming-AGM" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) and a <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20240423405941/en/2107923/1/53951785_PALLISER_CAPITAL_20240424_Letter_to_Keisei_English_2.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Letter to the Board</a>.</li>
</ul>


Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (presentation) on well-known "stub trade" Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a stake of about 1.6%. 
The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.
I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (Japanese/English) and a Letter to the Board.


Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Japan

Benefit One Inc. provides outsourcing services to major corporations in Japan. The Company provides a variety of benefit programs such as leisure, education, child care, nursing care and meal services for employees of the client companies.

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Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)

Pasona: The Wrong Price

Pasona is now trading ~65% of post-tender net after-tax cash+securities. Maybe cheaper. Pasona ex-Benefit One/ex-Bewith is guided to lose money...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

We expect the official index changes for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index to be announced after market close on 7th August 2024. It is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates

There are 51 Potential ADDs and 49 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in our latest Leaderboard and these have been grouped into HIGH, MED,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Since I wrote this piece, Keisei vs OLC is down small. Since I wrote the previous one, it is down more. I think there is room to go, but...

Travis Lundy

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