Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a>  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>. ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona's stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.</li>
<li>For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It's in the details. </li>
</ul>


Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP). 
This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona's stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It's in the details. 


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

<ul>
<li>As discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-m3-2413-partial-tob-as-pasona-sells-control-of-benefit-one-2412-really-interesting-dynamics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-m3-2413-partial-tob-as-pasona-sells-control-of-benefit-one-2412-really-interesting-dynamics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117493" rel="noopener"></a>, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).</li>
<li>That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.</li>
<li>Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. </li>
</ul>


As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> will buy 50.1-55.0% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18367:1" rel="noopener">Elan Corp (6099 JP)</a>. Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. </li>
<li>There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.</li>
<li>There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. </li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) will buy 50.1-55.0% of Elan Corp (6099 JP). Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. 
There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.
There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. 


M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

Japan

Benefit One Inc. provides outsourcing services to major corporations in Japan. The Company provides a variety of benefit programs such as leisure, education, child care, nursing care and meal services for employees of the client companies.

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Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)

New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

Dai-Ichi Life proposed a full takeout of Benefit One which would lead to a different structured sale by Pasona. The structure of that sale would...

Travis Lundy

Pasona: The Wrong Price

Pasona is now trading ~65% of post-tender net after-tax cash+securities. Maybe cheaper. Pasona ex-Benefit One/ex-Bewith is guided to lose money...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

M3 sets a partial TOB to buy control of Elan (6099). The structure/control/target ownership look a lot like the Benefit One deal. This one is cheap...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

We expect the official index changes for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index to be announced after market close on 7th August 2024. It is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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