Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has over 1x ADV to buy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH)</a> trackers. The stock is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.

Trip.com (9961 HK) has over 1x ADV to buy from Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) trackers. The stock is also an add to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI).


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $1.84 billion, -12% QoQ ,- 5% YoY, but at the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>Remains on track for &gt;50% wafer capacity growth between 2021 and 2024</li>
<li>Muted CY'23 outlook sends shares down ~10% by close. Buying opportunity?</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $1.84 billion, -12% QoQ ,- 5% YoY, but at the high end of the guided range
Remains on track for &gt;50% wafer capacity growth between 2021 and 2024
Muted CY'23 outlook sends shares down ~10% by close. Buying opportunity?


GlobalFoundries Q1'23 Revenue $1.84 Billion, -12% QoQ, -5% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>We expect SMIC to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and non-IFRS net income (2.6%), (31%), and (29%) vs. consensus, respectively.</li>
<li>Our sample of 1Q23 earnings for A-listed fabless firms found that (1) inventory days grew 18% QoQ to 191 days, and (2) revenues declined 9% QoQ. </li>
<li>Despite potential earnings miss, SMIC’s BUY case is strengthened positive externalities. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$24.</li>
</ul>


We expect SMIC to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and non-IFRS net income (2.6%), (31%), and (29%) vs. consensus, respectively.
Our sample of 1Q23 earnings for A-listed fabless firms found that (1) inventory days grew 18% QoQ to 191 days, and (2) revenues declined 9% QoQ. 
Despite potential earnings miss, SMIC’s BUY case is strengthened positive externalities. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$24.


[SMIC (981 HK, BUY, TP HK$24) Target Price Change]: Still Waiting for Downstream Inventory Digestion

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 201m and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 201m and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 28th): Meituan, China Construction Bank

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. Trip.com is...

Brian Freitas

GlobalFoundries Q1'23 Revenue $1.84 Billion, -12% QoQ, -5% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Q1’23 revenues of $1.84 billion, -12% QoQ and - 5% YoY, within guidance. On track for >50% wafer capacity growth 2021 to 2024. Muted CY'23 outlook...

William Keating

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[SMIC (981 HK, BUY, TP HK$24) Target Price Change]: Still Waiting for Downstream Inventory Digestion

Despite potential earnings miss, SMIC’s BUY case is strengthened positive externalities. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$24.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 28th): Meituan, China Construction Bank

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)