IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Rakuten Securities / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> (80.01%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> (19.99%) are its shareholders.  </li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-securities-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108460" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on rapidly slowing operating revenue and commissions growth, lowest per-account monetisation rates vs peers and mid-tier profitability. </li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. Rakuten Group (4755 JP) (80.01%) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) (19.99%) are its shareholders.  
In Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on rapidly slowing operating revenue and commissions growth, lowest per-account monetisation rates vs peers and mid-tier profitability. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> (80.01%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> (19.99%) are its shareholders.   </li>
<li>Rakuten Securities has grown its business by pursuing a low-cost, high-volume strategy. It has the largest number of non-consolidated securities accounts among Japanese securities companies.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on rapid customer growth, low-cost fees, market share gains, synergies with the Rakuten ecosystem and improving profitability trends.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) (80.01%) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) (19.99%) are its shareholders.   
Rakuten Securities has grown its business by pursuing a low-cost, high-volume strategy. It has the largest number of non-consolidated securities accounts among Japanese securities companies.
The key elements of the bull case rest on rapid customer growth, low-cost fees, market share gains, synergies with the Rakuten ecosystem and improving profitability trends.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities</a>, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing.</li>
<li>It is the largest online securities firm in Japan with a 33.7% market share. In FY22, it had over 8.64m accounts, with around JPY18.2tn (US$131bn) of assets under custody.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing.
It is the largest online securities firm in Japan with a 33.7% market share. In FY22, it had over 8.64m accounts, with around JPY18.2tn (US$131bn) of assets under custody.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Rakuten Securities IPO Early Look - The Negatives - Growth Has Slowed Down

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing.</li>
<li>It is the largest online securities firm in Japan with a 33.7% market share. In FY22, it had over 8.64m accounts, with around JPY18.2tn (US$131bn) of assets under custody.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing.
It is the largest online securities firm in Japan with a 33.7% market share. In FY22, it had over 8.64m accounts, with around JPY18.2tn (US$131bn) of assets under custody.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Rakuten Securities IPO Early Look - The Positives - Has Been Gaining Market Share

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS
NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity


Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Japan

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

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Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)

Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on rapidly slowing operating revenue and commissions growth, lowest per-account monetisation rates vs peers...

Arun George

Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on rapid customer growth, low-cost fees, market share gains, synergies with the Rakuten ecosystem and...

Arun George

Rakuten Securities IPO Early Look - The Negatives - Growth Has Slowed Down

Rakuten Securities, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Disinflation trade continues- Rates down, DXY down, Stocks up; Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast...

Mark Chadwick

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