Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s 3Q21 results were just as excellent as we suggested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-tobacco-turning-a-corner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner</a>, with revenue and adjusted operating profit increasing 10.6% and 20.0% YoY respectively to ¥621.5bn (consensus ¥574.7bn) and ¥184.7bn (consensus ¥123.7bn).</li>
<li>The annual dividend was raised by ¥10.0 (7.6%) to ¥140 per share but remains around ¥14-20 per share below our previous estimate. We think this leaves options open for JT to raise the 2021 dividend yet again in the fourth quarter.</li>
</ul>



Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 3Q21 results were just as excellent as we suggested in Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner, with revenue and adjusted operating profit increasing 10.6% and 20.0% YoY respectively to ¥621.5bn (consensus ¥574.7bn) and ¥184.7bn (consensus ¥123.7bn).
The annual dividend was raised by ¥10.0 (7.6%) to ¥140 per share but remains around ¥14-20 per share below our previous estimate. We think this leaves options open for JT to raise the 2021 dividend yet again in the fourth quarter.


Japan Tobacco: Ploom X Is Taking the Fight to IQOS

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Webinar, we are excited to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> and the LightStream Research team, as they present unique views into approaching the Japanese market. LightStream offers insights gleaned from their expertise on the ground, engaging with company management and bridging business and culture gaps between Japan and western Investors.</p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 1 September 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=89011968584" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Mio Kato has over 15 years of experience looking at Japanese and Asian cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos. He was previously with FrontPoint Partners LP, Arrowhawk Capital Partners, and Uzabase before founding LightStream Research.</p><p>LightStream Research conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia. The team supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available. They further refine the accuracy of their insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.</p>

For our next Webinar, we are excited to welcome back Insight Provider Mio Kato and the LightStream Research team, as they present unique views into approaching the Japanese market. LightStream offers insights gleaned from their expertise on the ground, engaging with company management and bridging business and culture gaps between Japan and western Investors.The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 1 September 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereMio Kato has over 15 years of experience looking at Japanese and Asian cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos. He was previously with FrontPoint Partners LP, Arrowhawk Capital Partners, and Uzabase before founding LightStream Research.LightStream Research conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia. The team supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available. They further refine the accuracy of their insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Smartkarma Webinar | Understanding Japanese Companies: Insights from LightStream Research

<ul>
<li>After a lengthy period of weakness which saw shares decline more than 62% to ¥1,812 per share by June 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> seems to have turned a corner with the share price trending upwards (for a considerable period) for the first time in a 5-6 year time period.</li>
<li>JT’s valuation looks cheap and we think that there is potential for multiple expansion alongside a dividend hike and strong OP performance in the second half of the year.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/975/original/image_96854996521629110963958.png?1629110966" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223975"></figure>


After a lengthy period of weakness which saw shares decline more than 62% to ¥1,812 per share by June 2020, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) seems to have turned a corner with the share price trending upwards (for a considerable period) for the first time in a 5-6 year time period.
JT’s valuation looks cheap and we think that there is potential for multiple expansion alongside a dividend hike and strong OP performance in the second half of the year.



Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Materials and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-kasei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19771:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Kasei (3407 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Industrials, Materials and Health Care sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> during the week. This was the first week where short increased substantially in Korea and comes a week ahead of the end of the short sell ban.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:962:1" rel="noopener">China Steel (2002 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4591:1" rel="noopener">China Airlines (2610 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Materials and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Asahi Kasei (3407 JP), Olympus Corp (7733 JP) and Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) while shorts decreased on Orix Corp (8591 JP), NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP), Shimano Inc (7309 JP) and Japan Tobacco (2914 JP). Shorts increased in the Industrials, Materials and Health Care sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS) during the week. This was the first week where short increased substantially in Korea and comes a week ahead of the end of the short sell ban.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were China Steel (2002 TT), China Airlines (2610 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) while shorts were covered on Innolux Corp (3481 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT), Delta Electronics (2308 TT) and Pegatron Corp (4938 TT).

Asia Shorts: Meituan, Kuaishou, Zhongsheng, Toshiba, Monex, Orix, Samsung, HMC, China Steel, Innolux

Japan

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

YAMAZAKI BAKING CO., LTD. produces baking foods including bread, pastry, and cake.  The Company operates nationwide sales network.  YAMAZAKI BAKING also operates franchised cafeterias and convenience stores.

NISSIN FOODS HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. produces instant noodle and processed food products.  The Company also develops pharmaceuticals.  NISSIN FOODS operates production facilities in overseas countries including Hong Kong, India, U.S., Singapore, and other countries.

MEIJI Holdings Co., Ltd. is the holding company established by reorganization of Meiji Seika Pharma & Meiji Corp.  The company manages subsidiaries engaging in production & sales of confectionary, milk, dairy products, and pharmaceuticals.

TOYO SUISAN KAISHA, LTD. purchases, processes, and sells seafood.  The Company also manufactures instant noodles, processed foods, fish paste, and frozen food products under Maru-chan brand.

YAKULT HONSHA CO., LTD produces and sells fermented milk products, soft drinks and food products.  The Company also manufactures pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.  Through its subsidiary, the professional baseball team, Tokyo Yakult Swallows is owned and managed.

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

British American Tobacco P.L.C. operates as a holding company for a group of companies that manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products including cigars and roll-your-own tobacco.

Imperial Brands PLC operates as a consumer goods company. The Company manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes, cigars, pipe and smokeless tobacco, snus, e-cigarettes, and other tobacco products, as well as logistics business. Imperial Brands serves customers worldwide.

Altria Group, Inc. is a holding company.  The Company, through subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products, including cigars and pipe tobacco.  Altria holds an interest in a brewery company.

Swedish Match AB manufactures and markets smokeless tobacco products. The Company offers products such as snus, moist snuff, and chewing tobacco. Swedish Match also manufactures and markets machine made cigars as well as matches and lighters.

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

KT&G Corporation processes, produces, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures ginseng products such as red ginseng tea and herbal medicines.  KT&G is also involved in real estate development of its former factory sites.

Smoore International Holdings Limited offering vaping technology solutions with advanced research and development technology. The Company manufactures and produces closed system vaping devices, self branded open system vaping devices, vaping components, and other products. Smoore International Holdings markets its products throughout Hong Kong.

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

Japan Tobacco: Ploom X Is Taking the Fight to IQOS

We believe JT’s 2021 DPS estimate remains conservative and there’s room for around ¥14-20 per share upside in 4Q21, especially considering that...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Smartkarma Webinar | Understanding Japanese Companies: Insights from LightStream Research

On 1 September, 5pm SGT, join us for a Webinar with Mio Kato and the LightStream Research team, as they present unique views into approaching the...

Smartkarma Research

Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner

After a lengthy period of weakness which saw shares decline more than 62% by June 2020, JT seems to have turned a corner with the share price...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asia Shorts: Meituan, Kuaishou, Zhongsheng, Toshiba, Monex, Orix, Samsung, HMC, China Steel, Innolux

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)