Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

2022 High Conviction - Japan Tobacco: The Comeback Story

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

Japan Tobacco: Likely to Increase Payout While Others Stash Their Cash

JUUL’s Demise to Drive Japan Tobacco’s E-Vapor & T-Vapor Growth & Ensures Long Term Survival

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s 3Q21 results were just as excellent as we suggested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-tobacco-turning-a-corner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner</a>, with revenue and adjusted operating profit increasing 10.6% and 20.0% YoY respectively to ¥621.5bn (consensus ¥574.7bn) and ¥184.7bn (consensus ¥123.7bn).</li>
<li>The annual dividend was raised by ¥10.0 (7.6%) to ¥140 per share but remains around ¥14-20 per share below our previous estimate. We think this leaves options open for JT to raise the 2021 dividend yet again in the fourth quarter.</li>
</ul>



Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 3Q21 results were just as excellent as we suggested in Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner, with revenue and adjusted operating profit increasing 10.6% and 20.0% YoY respectively to ¥621.5bn (consensus ¥574.7bn) and ¥184.7bn (consensus ¥123.7bn).
The annual dividend was raised by ¥10.0 (7.6%) to ¥140 per share but remains around ¥14-20 per share below our previous estimate. We think this leaves options open for JT to raise the 2021 dividend yet again in the fourth quarter.


Japan Tobacco: Ploom X Is Taking the Fight to IQOS