Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a> is Japan’s largest discount retailer but also a major GMS operator. </li>
<li>It is on track to achieve consolidated sales around ¥1.87 trillion by the end of the year, 85% of this in Japan despite the lack of inbound tourists.</li>
<li>PPI also has a great retail proposition in Asia which is proving popular. The long-term outlook at home and overseas looks solid.</li>
</ul>



Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP) is Japan’s largest discount retailer but also a major GMS operator. 
It is on track to achieve consolidated sales around ¥1.87 trillion by the end of the year, 85% of this in Japan despite the lack of inbound tourists.
PPI also has a great retail proposition in Asia which is proving popular. The long-term outlook at home and overseas looks solid.


Donki Back with a Plan at Home and Overseas

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A lot has been said and written about Trial's IPO but much of this relates to pass performance and comparing it to supermarkets.</li>
<li>As the company's latest Trial Go store in Fukuoka shows,  Trial is a tech-based retailer and a true discounter, and discounting is where the growth is in Japanese FMCG.</li>
<li>Trial thinks its technology can reduce costs significantly, improving margins while allowing it to roll out more small format stores to compete with convenience stores. It may be right.</li>
</ul>


A lot has been said and written about Trial's IPO but much of this relates to pass performance and comparing it to supermarkets.
As the company's latest Trial Go store in Fukuoka shows,  Trial is a tech-based retailer and a true discounter, and discounting is where the growth is in Japanese FMCG.
Trial thinks its technology can reduce costs significantly, improving margins while allowing it to roll out more small format stores to compete with convenience stores. It may be right.


Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Donki Back with a Plan at Home and Overseas

Don Quijote has been spurned by some investors recently but this is a mistake. PPIH remains at the heart of Japan's evolving discount boom and its...

Michael Causton

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

Trial failed to complete an IPO and is now going again and the same fundamentals outlined in this insight apply today as it is a long-term viewpoint.

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

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