IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shares will be credited to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>'s shareholders on 1 March.   </li>
<li>While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. </li>
<li>New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.</li>
</ul>


The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)'s shareholders on 1 March.   
While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.


Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ)</a> raised US$597 million by pricing the IPO at the low end of the price range of IDR875-880 per share.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) raised US$597 million by pricing the IPO at the low end of the price range of IDR875-880 per share.
Event-Driven developments - Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Keppel Corp (KEP SP), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) - Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.</li>
<li>This insight discusses the dynamics of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> as the SMM takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February but KEP trades ex- on 23 February.</li>
<li>While not as egregiously mis-priced as SCI vs SMM in autumn 2021, NEW KEPPEL appears under-priced here. </li>
</ul>


This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.
This insight discusses the dynamics of Keppel Corp (KEP SP) as the SMM takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February but KEP trades ex- on 23 February.
While not as egregiously mis-priced as SCI vs SMM in autumn 2021, NEW KEPPEL appears under-priced here. 


Keppel Goes Ex- SMM Spinoff This Week - NEWKEP Is Still A Buy

<ul>
<li>This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.</li>
<li>This insight discusses the dynamics of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> as the takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February after last week's SMM shareholder approval.</li>
<li>That will mean overhang. Lots of active overhang. There WILL be some index upweights, but index treatment remains nebulous, and one has to expect a lot more net index outflow.</li>
</ul>


This insight comes as one-half of a pair. The problem: I cannot label one insight as a pair trade, and there are different dynamics at play.
This insight discusses the dynamics of Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) as the takeover of Keppel O&amp;M nears. The deal goes effective 28 February after last week's SMM shareholder approval.
That will mean overhang. Lots of active overhang. There WILL be some index upweights, but index treatment remains nebulous, and one has to expect a lot more net index outflow.


Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP):  Keppel O&M Takeover Completion Next Week = OOF!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shareholders voted overwhelmingly for the merger between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine. The transaction is expected to close by 28 February.  </li>
<li>The divestment of Keppel O&amp;M will further move <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> towards a more asset-light and recurring earnings model, providing a helpful tailwind to hit its 15% ROE target.</li>
<li>Pre-Dividend in specie distribution, our Keppel SoTP valuation based on Sembcorp Marine’s reference issue price (S$0.122) and last close (S$0.136) is S$8.49 and S$8.72 per share, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders voted overwhelmingly for the merger between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine. The transaction is expected to close by 28 February.  
The divestment of Keppel O&amp;M will further move Keppel Corp (KEP SP) towards a more asset-light and recurring earnings model, providing a helpful tailwind to hit its 15% ROE target.
Pre-Dividend in specie distribution, our Keppel SoTP valuation based on Sembcorp Marine’s reference issue price (S$0.122) and last close (S$0.136) is S$8.49 and S$8.72 per share, respectively. 


Keppel (KEP SP): Keppel O&M/Sembcorp Marine Transaction Moves Towards Completion

Singapore

Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.

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Keppel Corp (KEP SP)

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) - Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (AAG Energy, Yashili, Fujitec, Toyo Construction, Newcrest, Norwest, Origin Energy, Star...

Arun George

Keppel Goes Ex- SMM Spinoff This Week - NEWKEP Is Still A Buy

Keppel Corp today = NEW KEP and 19.1 shares of SMM. NEWKEP is probably underpriced. SMM is a sell because of significant overhang (there may be a...

Travis Lundy

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Keppel O&M Takeover Completion Next Week = OOF!

Sembcorp Marine shareholders have agreed to acquire Keppel O&M. The transaction closes next week (28 Feb). KEP shareholders get SMM shares in their...

Travis Lundy

Keppel (KEP SP): Keppel O&M/Sembcorp Marine Transaction Moves Towards Completion

The divestment of Keppel O&M will further move Keppel towards a more asset-light and recurring earnings model, providing a helpful tailwind to hit...

Arun George

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Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

In the short term, Keppel's distribution in-specie of new SMM shares creates an overhang. Longer-term new SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) - Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (AAG Energy, Yashili, Fujitec, Toyo Construction, Newcrest, Norwest, Origin Energy, Star...

Arun George

Keppel Goes Ex- SMM Spinoff This Week - NEWKEP Is Still A Buy

Keppel Corp today = NEW KEP and 19.1 shares of SMM. NEWKEP is probably underpriced. SMM is a sell because of significant overhang (there may be a...

Travis Lundy

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Keppel O&M Takeover Completion Next Week = OOF!

Sembcorp Marine shareholders have agreed to acquire Keppel O&M. The transaction closes next week (28 Feb). KEP shareholders get SMM shares in their...

Travis Lundy

Keppel (KEP SP): Keppel O&M/Sembcorp Marine Transaction Moves Towards Completion

The divestment of Keppel O&M will further move Keppel towards a more asset-light and recurring earnings model, providing a helpful tailwind to hit...

Arun George