HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ascentage was originally in an extremely difficult situation, but the cooperation with Takeda turned things around. Ascentage has obtained urgently needed cash flow to solve the survival problem.</li>
<li>At this stage, it’s possible for Ascentage to hit about 50% market value of HCM.  Investors are interested to know if APG-2575 would also be out-licensed, which however is not easy.</li>
<li>Ascentage’s current strength isn’t sufficient to self-build sales system. While this deal is a good start, if Ascentage still chooses to do commercialization on its own, it’s time to sell. </li>
</ul>


Ascentage was originally in an extremely difficult situation, but the cooperation with Takeda turned things around. Ascentage has obtained urgently needed cash flow to solve the survival problem.
At this stage, it’s possible for Ascentage to hit about 50% market value of HCM.  Investors are interested to know if APG-2575 would also be out-licensed, which however is not easy.
Ascentage’s current strength isn’t sufficient to self-build sales system. While this deal is a good start, if Ascentage still chooses to do commercialization on its own, it’s time to sell. 


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda - Finally on the Right Path

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> reported ¥85B revenue increase in FY24 over FY23, while Fx impacted the revenue positively by ¥96B. In local currency terms, the U.S. revenue declined 5% YoY.</li>
<li>FY24 operating and net profit declined 80%+, due to amortization and impairment loss of intangible assets. Astellas is changing accounting policy to smoothen core operating and net profits in FY25.</li>
<li>For FY25, Astellas guided for just 3% revenue growth. Core operating profit is expected to decline 10%, while net profit is anticipated to take a bigger hit and decrease 17%.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported ¥85B revenue increase in FY24 over FY23, while Fx impacted the revenue positively by ¥96B. In local currency terms, the U.S. revenue declined 5% YoY.
FY24 operating and net profit declined 80%+, due to amortization and impairment loss of intangible assets. Astellas is changing accounting policy to smoothen core operating and net profits in FY25.
For FY25, Astellas guided for just 3% revenue growth. Core operating profit is expected to decline 10%, while net profit is anticipated to take a bigger hit and decrease 17%.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Fx Drives FY24 Revenue; Impairment Loss Dents Profits; Pain to Continue

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> announced better-than-expected Q4FY24 result, with all key parameters exceeding guidance. Q4 revenue increased 30% YoY to ¥429B, driven by 76% YoY growth in Enhertu product sales.</li>
<li>For FY25, Daiichi Sankyo guided 9% increase in revenue to ¥1,750B. Core operating profit is expected to increase 8% to ¥210B, while net profit to decline 5% to ¥190B.</li>
<li>In addition to the dividend of ¥60 per share for FY25, Daiichi Sankyo has announced buyback plan of 55M shares (2.87% of issued shares) for ¥200B.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) announced better-than-expected Q4FY24 result, with all key parameters exceeding guidance. Q4 revenue increased 30% YoY to ¥429B, driven by 76% YoY growth in Enhertu product sales.
For FY25, Daiichi Sankyo guided 9% increase in revenue to ¥1,750B. Core operating profit is expected to increase 8% to ¥210B, while net profit to decline 5% to ¥190B.
In addition to the dividend of ¥60 per share for FY25, Daiichi Sankyo has announced buyback plan of 55M shares (2.87% of issued shares) for ¥200B.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): FY24 Ends on Strong Note; Initiates FY25 Guidance; ¥200B Buyback Announced

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> has reported better-than-expected 3QFY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and profit, mainly driven by global mainstay products such as Enhertu and Lixiana, and favorable forex.</li>
<li>Driven by favorable Fx, sales increase from couple of products, and litigation payment, the company raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively.</li>
<li>FDA set an action date for Daiichi Sankyo’s second ADC drug candidate HER3-DXd of June 26 and for Dato-DXd of December 20. Both are for various types of lung cancers.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) has reported better-than-expected 3QFY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and profit, mainly driven by global mainstay products such as Enhertu and Lixiana, and favorable forex.
Driven by favorable Fx, sales increase from couple of products, and litigation payment, the company raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively.
FDA set an action date for Daiichi Sankyo’s second ADC drug candidate HER3-DXd of June 26 and for Dato-DXd of December 20. Both are for various types of lung cancers.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> ended 2023 on a mixed note. Both revenue and business profit were ahead of guidance. However, operating and net profits missed guidance, dragged by impairment loss.</li>
<li>Four global pharmaceutical products as well as the nutraceuticals business led the business performance. Even after excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the business remained above plan.</li>
<li>The company has guided for 6% YoY growth in 2024 revenue and business profit to ¥2,140B and ¥330B, respectively. 2024 net profit is expected to jump 106% YoY to ¥250B.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) ended 2023 on a mixed note. Both revenue and business profit were ahead of guidance. However, operating and net profits missed guidance, dragged by impairment loss.
Four global pharmaceutical products as well as the nutraceuticals business led the business performance. Even after excluding the impact of foreign exchange, the business remained above plan.
The company has guided for 6% YoY growth in 2024 revenue and business profit to ¥2,140B and ¥330B, respectively. 2024 net profit is expected to jump 106% YoY to ¥250B.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda - Finally on the Right Path

Cooperation with Takeda saves Ascentage from survival problem, but self-building sales team remains a challenge. Investors eye anther deal with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Fx Drives FY24 Revenue; Impairment Loss Dents Profits; Pain to Continue

For FY25, Astellas Pharma guided for just 3% revenue growth. FY25 core operating profit is expected to decline 10%, while net profit is anticipated...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): FY24 Ends on Strong Note; Initiates FY25 Guidance; ¥200B Buyback Announced

Daiichi Sankyo announced better-than-expected Q4 result, with all key parameters exceeding guidance. For FY25, the company expects 9% revenue and...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Tina Banerjee

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Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda - Finally on the Right Path

​Cooperation with Takeda saves Ascentage from survival problem, but self-building sales team remains a challenge. Investors eye anther deal with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Fx Drives FY24 Revenue; Impairment Loss Dents Profits; Pain to Continue

For FY25, Astellas Pharma guided for just 3% revenue growth. FY25 core operating profit is expected to decline 10%, while net profit is anticipated...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): FY24 Ends on Strong Note; Initiates FY25 Guidance; ¥200B Buyback Announced

Daiichi Sankyo announced better-than-expected Q4 result, with all key parameters exceeding guidance. For FY25, the company expects 9% revenue and...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

​Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Impairment Charges Bite 2023 Profit; 2024 Guidance Initiated

​Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...

Tina Banerjee

Cooperation with Takeda saves Ascentage from survival problem, but self-building sales team remains a challenge. Investors eye anther deal with...

Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...

Otsuka missed 2023 operating and net profit targets due to impairment loss. 6% YoY growth is expected for 2024 revenue and business profit. Net...