Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported Q2FY25 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. The growth is attributable to favorable Fx and strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products.</li>
<li>The strong performance of Takeda’s Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which more than offsets LOE impact, reinforces the company’s confidence in returning to sustainable revenue and profit growth.</li>
<li>Takeda has raised FY25 guidance. The revised guidance reflects muted H2FY25 performance, affected by lower revenue from key drugs and accelerated R&amp;D investments.  </li>
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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported Q2FY25 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. The growth is attributable to favorable Fx and strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products.
The strong performance of Takeda’s Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which more than offsets LOE impact, reinforces the company’s confidence in returning to sustainable revenue and profit growth.
Takeda has raised FY25 guidance. The revised guidance reflects muted H2FY25 performance, affected by lower revenue from key drugs and accelerated R&amp;D investments.  


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Beat-And-Raise Q2 Amid Strong Performance of New Drugs

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

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<li>Given the high number of pipeline dropouts, and the potentially disappointing $6 bn psoriasis drug acquisition, we question Takeda’s recent investment track record.</li>
<li>A big restructuring, high expectations from new/recently launched drug portfolio, and punchy company guidance reduces the probability of upside surprises.</li>
<li>Unless you are limited from investing outside Japan and you want exposure to an innovative pharma company, we believe that there are better and cheaper options elsewhere.</li>
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Given the high number of pipeline dropouts, and the potentially disappointing $6 bn psoriasis drug acquisition, we question Takeda’s recent investment track record.
A big restructuring, high expectations from new/recently launched drug portfolio, and punchy company guidance reduces the probability of upside surprises.
Unless you are limited from investing outside Japan and you want exposure to an innovative pharma company, we believe that there are better and cheaper options elsewhere.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>Eisai Announced that global revenue of Leqembi in Q2FY25 was ¥10B, up 1.6x than Q1FY25. Takeda Pharma announced positive interim results from a Phase 3 study.</li>
<li>Shionogi’s COVID-19 drug was effective in reducing transmission of the disease. JCR Pharmaceuticals initiated first patient dosing in Japan in the Phase I clinical trial of JR-441.</li>
<li>Celltrion signed a contract with a U.S. GPO to list Zymfentra on private insurance formularies, which will expand the drug's coverage to 90%+ of the U.S. health insurance market.</li>
</ul>


Eisai Announced that global revenue of Leqembi in Q2FY25 was ¥10B, up 1.6x than Q1FY25. Takeda Pharma announced positive interim results from a Phase 3 study.
Shionogi’s COVID-19 drug was effective in reducing transmission of the disease. JCR Pharmaceuticals initiated first patient dosing in Japan in the Phase I clinical trial of JR-441.
Celltrion signed a contract with a U.S. GPO to list Zymfentra on private insurance formularies, which will expand the drug's coverage to 90%+ of the U.S. health insurance market.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 3)- Eisai, Takeda, Shionogi, Astellas Pharma, Celltrion, Wuxi AppTec

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

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<li>Takeda’s 2QFY03/2024 revenues increased 4.1% YoY beating consensus estimates by 6%. However, Takeda reported an operating loss of ¥49.3bn for the quarter due to impairment losses.</li>
<li>As we expected, recent setback in some of Takeda’s clinical trials have led to write-downs and triggered a downward revision to full-year profit guidance.</li>
<li>There has been excessive price reaction to these setbacks, however, Takeda continues to progress with its pipeline development with some newly launched drugs showing great potential.</li>
</ul>


Takeda’s 2QFY03/2024 revenues increased 4.1% YoY beating consensus estimates by 6%. However, Takeda reported an operating loss of ¥49.3bn for the quarter due to impairment losses.
As we expected, recent setback in some of Takeda’s clinical trials have led to write-downs and triggered a downward revision to full-year profit guidance.
There has been excessive price reaction to these setbacks, however, Takeda continues to progress with its pipeline development with some newly launched drugs showing great potential.


Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a>'s flagship drug Latuda will loss patent protection in the U.S. in 2023. Latuda is already seeing revenue erosion.  </li>
<li>Sumitomo is expected to reap the benefit of new products launched in the U.S. market in 2020 and 2021. These are expected to gradually become next growth drivers.  </li>
<li>The company has a rich pipeline and targets to launch at least two new drugs in the U.S. in next two years.  </li>
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Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)'s flagship drug Latuda will loss patent protection in the U.S. in 2023. Latuda is already seeing revenue erosion.  
Sumitomo is expected to reap the benefit of new products launched in the U.S. market in 2020 and 2021. These are expected to gradually become next growth drivers.  
The company has a rich pipeline and targets to launch at least two new drugs in the U.S. in next two years.  


Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): New Launches Ensure Post-Latuda Growth Trajectory

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)