Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported Q2FY25 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. The growth is attributable to favorable Fx and strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products.</li>
<li>The strong performance of Takeda’s Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which more than offsets LOE impact, reinforces the company’s confidence in returning to sustainable revenue and profit growth.</li>
<li>Takeda has raised FY25 guidance. The revised guidance reflects muted H2FY25 performance, affected by lower revenue from key drugs and accelerated R&amp;D investments.  </li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported Q2FY25 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. The growth is attributable to favorable Fx and strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products.
The strong performance of Takeda’s Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which more than offsets LOE impact, reinforces the company’s confidence in returning to sustainable revenue and profit growth.
Takeda has raised FY25 guidance. The revised guidance reflects muted H2FY25 performance, affected by lower revenue from key drugs and accelerated R&amp;D investments.  


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Beat-And-Raise Q2 Amid Strong Performance of New Drugs

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED will receive a US$20 million milestone payment from its partner Takeda. In our view, peak sales of fruquintinib is expected to reach about US$700 million in overseas markets.</li>
<li>After the Head of AstraZeneca China has been detained by authorities, AstraZeneca's future commercialization would be affected, which will have a negative impact on savolitinib and HUTCHMED in short term.</li>
<li>Reasonable market value of HUTCHMED based on the three major products is about US$2.7-3.3 billion assuming P/S of 4. If market value is below US$2.5 billion, HUTCHMED is undervalued.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED will receive a US$20 million milestone payment from its partner Takeda. In our view, peak sales of fruquintinib is expected to reach about US$700 million in overseas markets.
After the Head of AstraZeneca China has been detained by authorities, AstraZeneca's future commercialization would be affected, which will have a negative impact on savolitinib and HUTCHMED in short term.
Reasonable market value of HUTCHMED based on the three major products is about US$2.7-3.3 billion assuming P/S of 4. If market value is below US$2.5 billion, HUTCHMED is undervalued.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - The Fundamentals Remain Strong

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

<ul>
<li>Given the high number of pipeline dropouts, and the potentially disappointing $6 bn psoriasis drug acquisition, we question Takeda’s recent investment track record.</li>
<li>A big restructuring, high expectations from new/recently launched drug portfolio, and punchy company guidance reduces the probability of upside surprises.</li>
<li>Unless you are limited from investing outside Japan and you want exposure to an innovative pharma company, we believe that there are better and cheaper options elsewhere.</li>
</ul>


Given the high number of pipeline dropouts, and the potentially disappointing $6 bn psoriasis drug acquisition, we question Takeda’s recent investment track record.
A big restructuring, high expectations from new/recently launched drug portfolio, and punchy company guidance reduces the probability of upside surprises.
Unless you are limited from investing outside Japan and you want exposure to an innovative pharma company, we believe that there are better and cheaper options elsewhere.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Biologics signs manufacturing deals worth over $668M with European pharmaceutical company. Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, a specialty pharmaceutical distribution company in Switzerland. Kyowa Kirin collaborates for leukemia drug.</li>
<li>Takeda launched Hutchmed’s colorectal cancer drug Fruzaqla in Japan. FDA has turned down Astellas Pharma’s application for label update of geographic atrophy drug Izervay. Lunit is partnering with AstraZeneca.</li>
<li>Yuhan is one step ahead for European approval of Leclaza. HK inno.N signs domestic supply contract for Roche’s influenza treatment, Tamiflu. Beigene settles litigation against generic filer of Brukinsa.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Biologics signs manufacturing deals worth over $668M with European pharmaceutical company. Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, a specialty pharmaceutical distribution company in Switzerland. Kyowa Kirin collaborates for leukemia drug.
Takeda launched Hutchmed’s colorectal cancer drug Fruzaqla in Japan. FDA has turned down Astellas Pharma’s application for label update of geographic atrophy drug Izervay. Lunit is partnering with AstraZeneca.
Yuhan is one step ahead for European approval of Leclaza. HK inno.N signs domestic supply contract for Roche’s influenza treatment, Tamiflu. Beigene settles litigation against generic filer of Brukinsa.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 24)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Takeda, Kyowa Kirin, Astellas Pharma

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a>'s flagship drug Latuda will loss patent protection in the U.S. in 2023. Latuda is already seeing revenue erosion.  </li>
<li>Sumitomo is expected to reap the benefit of new products launched in the U.S. market in 2020 and 2021. These are expected to gradually become next growth drivers.  </li>
<li>The company has a rich pipeline and targets to launch at least two new drugs in the U.S. in next two years.  </li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)'s flagship drug Latuda will loss patent protection in the U.S. in 2023. Latuda is already seeing revenue erosion.  
Sumitomo is expected to reap the benefit of new products launched in the U.S. market in 2020 and 2021. These are expected to gradually become next growth drivers.  
The company has a rich pipeline and targets to launch at least two new drugs in the U.S. in next two years.  


Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): New Launches Ensure Post-Latuda Growth Trajectory

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)