Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with different gene therapy developers.</li>
<li>Rare diseases biz is the second largest business segment for Takeda generating about 17.1% of total revenues for the company.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price started plunging after suspending a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 and price started moving up since January and we think there is further upside.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with different gene therapy developers.
Rare diseases biz is the second largest business segment for Takeda generating about 17.1% of total revenues for the company.
Takeda’s share price started plunging after suspending a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 and price started moving up since January and we think there is further upside.


Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> shares declined 2% since we published our bearish note on the company in December. We remain bearish on the name.</li>
<li>Chugai is betting big on Actemra, Hemlibra, and Ronapreve for achieving 2022 revenue target. However, these have bleak outlook due to competition and uncertainty regarding COVID-19 prevalence globally.</li>
<li>Chugai does not have any big launches expected this year. Pipeline has less visibility for compensating the revenue loss from the patent expired products.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) shares declined 2% since we published our bearish note on the company in December. We remain bearish on the name.
Chugai is betting big on Actemra, Hemlibra, and Ronapreve for achieving 2022 revenue target. However, these have bleak outlook due to competition and uncertainty regarding COVID-19 prevalence globally.
Chugai does not have any big launches expected this year. Pipeline has less visibility for compensating the revenue loss from the patent expired products.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Key Drugs Are Facing Competition; 2022 Target Seems Aggressive

Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ilyang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2789:1" rel="noopener">Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS)</a> shares have plunged 19% since we published our bearish insight on the company on November 2, 2021.</li>
<li>We are still bearish on Ilyang Pharmaceutical as both of its key drugs, Noltec and Supect are facing increasing competition from new generation treatments.</li>
<li>Q4 provisional results indicate sequential deceleration in revenue, operating profit, and net profit. Recently, one institutional shareholder has reduced stake holding in the company.  </li>
</ul>



Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS) shares have plunged 19% since we published our bearish insight on the company on November 2, 2021.
We are still bearish on Ilyang Pharmaceutical as both of its key drugs, Noltec and Supect are facing increasing competition from new generation treatments.
Q4 provisional results indicate sequential deceleration in revenue, operating profit, and net profit. Recently, one institutional shareholder has reduced stake holding in the company.  


Ilyang Pharmaceutical (007570 KS): Key Drugs Facing Increasing Competition

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Legal and regulatory changes have spawned cannabis companies, focused on cannabis-based medical and recreational products and the development of new breeds of crop </li>
<li>In Cannabis innovations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philip-morris-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13328:1" rel="noopener">Philip Morris International (PM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canopy-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25083:1" rel="noopener">Canopy Growth (WEED CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jazz-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15881:1" rel="noopener">Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merck-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1130:1" rel="noopener">Merck &amp; Co Inc. (MRK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> lead</li>
<li>In overall plant-based extracts innovations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jazz-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15881:1" rel="noopener">Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eid-parry-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6925:1" rel="noopener">Eid Parry India (EID IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbott-laboratories" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11987:1" rel="noopener">Abbott Laboratories (ABT US), </a>Indena, Mars Incorporated, and Liveleaf are the leaders.</li>
</ul>


Legal and regulatory changes have spawned cannabis companies, focused on cannabis-based medical and recreational products and the development of new breeds of crop 
In Cannabis innovations Philip Morris International (PM US), Canopy Growth (WEED CN), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US)Merck &amp; Co Inc. (MRK US) and Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) lead
In overall plant-based extracts innovations Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US), Eid Parry India (EID IN), Abbott Laboratories (ABT US), Indena, Mars Incorporated, and Liveleaf are the leaders.


Insights from Data Mining Technical Publications - Plant Extracts Including from Cannabis

<ul>
<li>Takeda announced 3QFY03/2022 results today. Reported revenue grew 7.7% YoY to JPY901.3bn (vs consensus JPY850.5bn) and OP declined 18.6% YoY to JPY116.5bn (vs consensus JPY115.6bn) due to divestitures.</li>
<li>Revenue from Top 14 key drugs grew 21.2% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 24.2% YoY during the quarter.</li>
<li>Takeda has upgraded its previous guidance for full-year FY03/2022. The company continues to progress with drug development. Two of its products were approved during the last 6-months.</li>
</ul>


Takeda announced 3QFY03/2022 results today. Reported revenue grew 7.7% YoY to JPY901.3bn (vs consensus JPY850.5bn) and OP declined 18.6% YoY to JPY116.5bn (vs consensus JPY115.6bn) due to divestitures.
Revenue from Top 14 key drugs grew 21.2% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 24.2% YoY during the quarter.
Takeda has upgraded its previous guidance for full-year FY03/2022. The company continues to progress with drug development. Two of its products were approved during the last 6-months.


Takeda: Key Drugs Continue Growth and Upgrade to Guidance; Pipeline Progress Despite Recent Setbacks

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers

Takeda has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Key Drugs Are Facing Competition; 2022 Target Seems Aggressive

We remain bearish on Chugai Pharmaceutical as its largest selling drugs are facing competition. For 2022, the company is expecting just 1.4% y/y...

Tina Banerjee

Ilyang Pharmaceutical (007570 KS): Key Drugs Facing Increasing Competition

Increasing competition for its key drugs, sequential decelerating financial performance in Q4, and recent institutional shareholder selling stocks...

Tina Banerjee

Insights from Data Mining Technical Publications - Plant Extracts Including from Cannabis

Herbal medicinal and nutraceutical extracts are seen as instruments to maintain health and treat some conditions. Cannabis, in particular, will see...

Pyari Menon

Takeda: Key Drugs Continue Growth and Upgrade to Guidance; Pipeline Progress Despite Recent Setbacks

Takeda's revenues beat consensus by 6.0% and key global brands continue to perform stronger. The drug development pipeline progresses despite...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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