Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US</li>
<li>Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.</li>
<li>We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.</li>
</ul>


In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.


MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY03/2023 results today. Reported revenue increased 11.2% YoY to JPY1,096.6bn (vs consensus JPY996bn) while OP increased 26.2% YoY to JPY147bn (vs consensus JPY180.1).</li>
<li>The drop in OP vs consensus was mainly due to the depreciation of the Yen, nevertheless, OPM improved 30bps to 13.4% during the quarter.</li>
<li>Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think the company will easily beat its own guidance as it pushes forward with its development pipeline further aided by M&amp;A.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 3QFY03/2023 results today. Reported revenue increased 11.2% YoY to JPY1,096.6bn (vs consensus JPY996bn) while OP increased 26.2% YoY to JPY147bn (vs consensus JPY180.1).
The drop in OP vs consensus was mainly due to the depreciation of the Yen, nevertheless, OPM improved 30bps to 13.4% during the quarter.
Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think the company will easily beat its own guidance as it pushes forward with its development pipeline further aided by M&amp;A.


Takeda: Top Line Beats Consensus, Steady Pipeline Progress and Further Upside

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.</li>
<li>In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.</li>
<li>Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.</li>
</ul>


New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.
In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.
Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) - Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED entered into an exclusive license agreement with Takeda- HUTCHMED will receive up to US$1.13 billion including US$400 million upfront, the third highest upfront among China’s TOP 10 license-out deals.</li>
<li>Even if fruquintinib may probably not become a blockbuster product in the future, HUTCHMED still gets a decent upfront to relieve its cash flow pressure and an internationalization admission ticket.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) </a>is undervalued based on our sales forecast. After savolitinib has been included in the updated NRDL, this year’s performance growth is worth looking forward to.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED entered into an exclusive license agreement with Takeda- HUTCHMED will receive up to US$1.13 billion including US$400 million upfront, the third highest upfront among China’s TOP 10 license-out deals.
Even if fruquintinib may probably not become a blockbuster product in the future, HUTCHMED still gets a decent upfront to relieve its cash flow pressure and an internationalization admission ticket.

Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) is undervalued based on our sales forecast. After savolitinib has been included in the updated NRDL, this year’s performance growth is worth looking forward to.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The $1.13B Eye-Catching Deal with Takeda and the New Outlook

<ul>
<li>Takeda announced Monday that it has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED (China) for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Takeda will pay HUTCHMED $400m upfront and up to $730m in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales.</li>
<li>Fruquintinib was approved in China in 2018, is a highly selective, oral VEGFR1/2/3 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor and offers potential new treatment option for patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).</li>
</ul>


Takeda announced Monday that it has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED (China) for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.
Takeda will pay HUTCHMED $400m upfront and up to $730m in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales.
Fruquintinib was approved in China in 2018, is a highly selective, oral VEGFR1/2/3 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor and offers potential new treatment option for patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).


Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

$93 on $ACWI has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and it now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun....

Vermilion Research

Takeda: Top Line Beats Consensus, Steady Pipeline Progress and Further Upside

Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think a large beat is incoming. There is further upside as it pushes forward with its...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) - Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

New policy released to support development of surgical robot. COVID-19 is no longer an excuse for company's poor performance. It's a good time to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The $1.13B Eye-Catching Deal with Takeda and the New Outlook

HUTCHMED/Takeda $1.13 billion license agreement is very worthy of learning.Together with savolitinib's inclusion in new NRDL,2023 performance...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition

Takeda's exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib should help its oncology biz...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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