Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.</li>
<li>This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.</li>
<li>We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.
This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.
We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.


Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  revealed over the weekend that experimental drug TAK-279 (acquired from Nimbus) for psoriasis is showing positive results suggesting it could become the best of its type.</li>
<li>On the other hand, Takeda’s dengue vaccine Qdenga has been granted approval in Brazil, a country with high prevalence of dengue.</li>
<li>Takeda’s top selling drug Entyvio’s exclusivity in the US will end in 2026 and the company continues to see strong progress with its development pipeline and M&amp;A deals.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  revealed over the weekend that experimental drug TAK-279 (acquired from Nimbus) for psoriasis is showing positive results suggesting it could become the best of its type.
On the other hand, Takeda’s dengue vaccine Qdenga has been granted approval in Brazil, a country with high prevalence of dengue.
Takeda’s top selling drug Entyvio’s exclusivity in the US will end in 2026 and the company continues to see strong progress with its development pipeline and M&amp;A deals.


Takeda: Nimbus Acquired Psoriasis Drug Showing Positive Results in Key Trial

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a>'s cash cow Growject, recombinant human growth hormone, is reporting decelerating revenue due to insurance price revision. The drug is also facing competition.  </li>
<li>JCR’s latest marketed product Izcargo is on a strong growth trajectory. However, the drug is not big enough to compensate for the revenue loss from Growject.  </li>
<li>The company’s bottom-line is under pressure due to elevated R&amp;D expenses. Cash position has also deteriorated. No near-term product launch is anticipated.  </li>
</ul>



Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)'s cash cow Growject, recombinant human growth hormone, is reporting decelerating revenue due to insurance price revision. The drug is also facing competition.  
JCR’s latest marketed product Izcargo is on a strong growth trajectory. However, the drug is not big enough to compensate for the revenue loss from Growject.  
The company’s bottom-line is under pressure due to elevated R&amp;D expenses. Cash position has also deteriorated. No near-term product launch is anticipated.  


Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP): Mainstay Drug Revenue Declining; High R&D Cost Worsens Profitability

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

As Yen is recovering from its multi-year lows against Dollar this year, export-oriented healthcare companies are expected to significantly...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda: Nimbus Acquired Psoriasis Drug Showing Positive Results in Key Trial

Takeda's psoriasis drug candidate acquired from Nimbus has shown positive results in key trials and has the potential to become superior to Bristol...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP): Mainstay Drug Revenue Declining; High R&D Cost Worsens Profitability

Revenue from JCR’s flagship drug Growject declined 7% to ¥9.3B during 9MFY23, due to the negative impact of insurance price. As R&D cost is...

Tina Banerjee

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