Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the beginning of the month, we suggested that setting up trades based on TOPIX outperforming Nikkei looked interesting. </li>
<li>This skew trade has a slight inherent short bias as Nikkei is more growth skewed but it has nevertheless generated a positive return. </li>
<li>That is despite Nikkei rising 3.8% since we published our initial note.</li>
</ul>


At the beginning of the month, we suggested that setting up trades based on TOPIX outperforming Nikkei looked interesting. 
This skew trade has a slight inherent short bias as Nikkei is more growth skewed but it has nevertheless generated a positive return. 
That is despite Nikkei rising 3.8% since we published our initial note.


Checking in on the Topix-Nikkei Skew Trade

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>The TOB of Daibiru was aimed at bringing in stable earnings from building leasing business to the parent company, and Daibiru's undervalued stock price made it easy to TOB.</li>
<li>Uchida Esco has higher business growth potential and higher profit margins than its parent company, which is the reason behind this case. This is the most common case in TOBs.</li>
<li>If NTT DATA's overseas businesses are strengthened through the restructuring in the NTT Group, the TOB of the listed subsidiary will be likely to occur in future.</li>
</ul>


The TOB of Daibiru was aimed at bringing in stable earnings from building leasing business to the parent company, and Daibiru's undervalued stock price made it easy to TOB.
Uchida Esco has higher business growth potential and higher profit margins than its parent company, which is the reason behind this case. This is the most common case in TOBs.
If NTT DATA's overseas businesses are strengthened through the restructuring in the NTT Group, the TOB of the listed subsidiary will be likely to occur in future.


Japan's Governance: Parent-Subsidiary Listing Investment Strategy Update (3)

<ul>
<li>Early last year as COVID was breaking and the BOJ doubled its ETF purchases shifting to TOPIX ETFs from Nikkei ETFs we brought up this trade. </li>
<li>With a long weekend adding to the mix conditions were abnormal but our suggested trades generated 10-12% pure alpha within four trading days. </li>
<li>This trade is starting to look interesting to us again though returns are likely to be less explosive but more persistent this time.</li>
</ul>


Early last year as COVID was breaking and the BOJ doubled its ETF purchases shifting to TOPIX ETFs from Nikkei ETFs we brought up this trade. 
With a long weekend adding to the mix conditions were abnormal but our suggested trades generated 10-12% pure alpha within four trading days. 
This trade is starting to look interesting to us again though returns are likely to be less explosive but more persistent this time.


Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>NTT has had a good couple of weeks. The company followed up its mid-term EPS target upgrade last week with Q2 results ahead of consensus and announced the cancellation of treasury shares that provide indirect confirmation that share buyback volumes of c. ¥200-300bn will continue.  Operationally, the Q2 beat was driven by results for NTT Data that were announced yesterday but the company also posted a fifth straight quarter of fixed-line growth whilst the mobile business posted healthier results than peers. We remain at Buy.</p>

NTT has had a good couple of weeks. The company followed up its mid-term EPS target upgrade last week with Q2 results ahead of consensus and announced the cancellation of treasury shares that provide indirect confirmation that share buyback volumes of c. ¥200-300bn will continue.  Operationally, the Q2 beat was driven by results for NTT Data that were announced yesterday but the company also posted a fifth straight quarter of fixed-line growth whilst the mobile business posted healthier results than peers. We remain at Buy.

NTT (Buy) - Q2 21 Results Reaction: Profit Beat with Good News in Fixed and Mobile

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<p>While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.</p>

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

Japan

NTT Data Corporation mainly provides large scale system integration and networking system services. System integration involves data transmission system design, sales, leasing, and services.  Network System Services include internet related and linked computer networks, and data provision and management of data. The Company is a subsidiary of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corporation.

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NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)

Checking in on the Topix-Nikkei Skew Trade

Our TOPIX-Nikkei skew trade has a slight inherent short bias as Nikkei is more growth skewed but it has nevertheless generated a positive return...

Mio Kato

Japan's Governance: Parent-Subsidiary Listing Investment Strategy Update (3)

This article examines the cases of Daibiru and Uchida Esco, which are being TOB'd to become wholly owned subsidiaries, and also considers NTT Data,...

Metrical Inc

Revisiting the Topix-Nikkei Skew Trade

Early last year we suggested trading this skew which would have generated 10-12% pure alpha within four trading days. This trade is starting to...

Mio Kato

NTT (Buy) - Q2 21 Results Reaction: Profit Beat with Good News in Fixed and Mobile

NTT followed up on its mid-term EPS guidance upgrade last week with a solid set of results driven by fixed-line growth and a return to mobile...

Kirk Boodry

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

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