Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is planning to launch its 2nm in 2025.   </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to acquire one High-NA EUV machine this year for R&amp;D purposes, but it will not be used for commercial production.</li>
<li>TSMC is expected to increase the cost of its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) package by around 15% in 2H24.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is planning to launch its 2nm in 2025.   
TSMC is expected to acquire one High-NA EUV machine this year for R&amp;D purposes, but it will not be used for commercial production.
TSMC is expected to increase the cost of its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) package by around 15% in 2H24.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): ASML's High-NA EUV Machine Will Not Be Required Until 2027 at TSMC.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.</li>
<li>This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.</li>
<li>Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.</li>
</ul>


TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.
This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.
Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.


2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Gelsinger excited for AI PC breakthrough at Computex 2024, plans Intel's 40th anniversary event in Taiwan next year.</li><li>MediaTek unveils AI and wireless advancements at Computex 2024, demonstrating commitment to technology innovation.</li><li>Nvidia CEO predicts rise of robots in the future; Taiwan's LEO satellite program delayed by funding and tech transfer issues.</li></ul>

Gelsinger excited for AI PC breakthrough at Computex 2024, plans Intel's 40th anniversary event in Taiwan next year.MediaTek unveils AI and wireless advancements at Computex 2024, demonstrating commitment to technology innovation.Nvidia CEO predicts rise of robots in the future; Taiwan's LEO satellite program delayed by funding and tech transfer issues.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jun-2024): Gelsinger forecasts Intel Taiwan party for 40th anniversary.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot</li>
<li>Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E </li>
<li>Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot
Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E 
Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): ASML's High-NA EUV Machine Will Not Be Required Until 2027 at TSMC.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plans to launch 2nm chip in 2025, investing in R&D and increasing CoWoS package cost by 15% in 2H24.

Patrick Liao

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jun-2024): Gelsinger forecasts Intel Taiwan party for 40th anniversary.

Intel, MediaTek, Nvidia, Taiwan's satellite program, India, Vietnam, M&A market, OLED shipments, and key industries showcased at Computex 2024.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): ASML's High-NA EUV Machine Will Not Be Required Until 2027 at TSMC.

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plans to launch 2nm chip in 2025, investing in R&D and increasing CoWoS package cost by 15% in 2H24.

Patrick Liao

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jun-2024): Gelsinger forecasts Intel Taiwan party for 40th anniversary.

Intel, MediaTek, Nvidia, Taiwan's satellite program, India, Vietnam, M&A market, OLED shipments, and key industries showcased at Computex 2024.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

​Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plans to launch 2nm chip in 2025, investing in R&D and increasing CoWoS package cost by 15% in 2H24.

Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.