Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: Stock Prices Soared After Reporting Earnings, But ADR Rose Higher... Now +12.4% Premium, Shortable Level</li>
<li>ASE: ADR Spread Has Rebounded Substantially, Now +8.6%. Not Yet at Short Levels.</li>
<li>ChipMOS: ADR Spread Drops to -2.2%, Good Level to Go Long.</li>
</ul>


TSMC: Stock Prices Soared After Reporting Earnings, But ADR Rose Higher... Now +12.4% Premium, Shortable Level
ASE: ADR Spread Has Rebounded Substantially, Now +8.6%. Not Yet at Short Levels.
ChipMOS: ADR Spread Drops to -2.2%, Good Level to Go Long.


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.</li>
<li>FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005</li>
<li>Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.
FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005
Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. 


<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.</li>
<li>The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.</li>
<li>TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.


TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.</li>
<li>TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.</li>
<li>2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.
TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.
2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level

Stock prices for TSMC surged after its earnings report, with its ADR spread expanding. ASE's ADR spread increased as well. ChipMOS's ADR spread...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADRs Outpace Local, Extreme Spread; ChipMOS Good Long Level

​Stock prices for TSMC surged after its earnings report, with its ADR spread expanding. ASE's ADR spread increased as well. ChipMOS's ADR spread...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

​TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

​TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Stock prices for TSMC surged after its earnings report, with its ADR spread expanding. ASE's ADR spread increased as well. ChipMOS's ADR spread...

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...