Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +15% ADR Premium; Likely to Trend Further Lower Over Time</li>
<li>UMC: -2.3% Discount; Decent Level to Long the ADR vs. Short Local</li>
<li>ASE: +11.6% Premium; Continue to Advocate Shorting the Spread Here</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +15% ADR Premium; Likely to Trend Further Lower Over Time
UMC: -2.3% Discount; Decent Level to Long the ADR vs. Short Local
ASE: +11.6% Premium; Continue to Advocate Shorting the Spread Here


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Slumped But Remains Extreme; UMC at a Discount

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its industry-leading 3-nanometer technology.</li><li>The gross margin, however decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 53% primarily due to margin dilution from 3-nanometer technology.</li><li>The operating margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.6%, slightly ahead of the company's guidance.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its industry-leading 3-nanometer technology.The gross margin, however decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 53% primarily due to margin dilution from 3-nanometer technology.The operating margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.6%, slightly ahead of the company's guidance.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! - Key Growth Catalysts

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

<ul>
<li>Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus </li>
</ul>


Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. 
PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.</li>
<li>In the second half of 2024F, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.</li>
<li>The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.
In the second half of 2024F, the Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.
The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Slumped But Remains Extreme; UMC at a Discount

TSMC's ADR premium has fallen but remains at a very high level relative to history. UMC ADR's have fallen to a discount and are at a decent level...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! - Key Growth Catalysts

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its...

Baptista Research

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

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Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Slumped But Remains Extreme; UMC at a Discount

TSMC's ADR premium has fallen but remains at a very high level relative to history. UMC ADR's have fallen to a discount and are at a decent level...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! - Key Growth Catalysts

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its...

Baptista Research

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

​TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

​TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...