Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What story do we believe? Will TSMC to regain its strong outperperformance?</li>
<li>Positive impacts: we expect Arizona fab equipment move-in and ramp up might be further delayed if no subsidies are granted; two teams competing to one voice/team/direction.</li>
<li>Three risks: 1. Dr. Wei at his age of 70 without a strong management backup; 2. Dr. Wei might make a wrong decision deeply; 3. absolute power corrupts.</li>
</ul>


Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What story do we believe? Will TSMC to regain its strong outperperformance?
Positive impacts: we expect Arizona fab equipment move-in and ramp up might be further delayed if no subsidies are granted; two teams competing to one voice/team/direction.
Three risks: 1. Dr. Wei at his age of 70 without a strong management backup; 2. Dr. Wei might make a wrong decision deeply; 3. absolute power corrupts.


TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Q2 revenue hits NT$673.51 billion, exceeding expectations amid strong demand for advanced chips.</li>
<li>TSMC to grapple with tight supply through 2025, striving to meet soaring global demand across various sectors.</li>
<li>TSMC on track for 2025 mass production of 2nm chips, enhancing capabilities for more powerful and efficient technologies.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's Q2 revenue hits NT$673.51 billion, exceeding expectations amid strong demand for advanced chips.
TSMC to grapple with tight supply through 2025, striving to meet soaring global demand across various sectors.
TSMC on track for 2025 mass production of 2nm chips, enhancing capabilities for more powerful and efficient technologies.


TSMC Shatters Q2 Expectations Bolstered by Strong AI Chip Demand

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Significant revenue guidance hike -- TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed 'mid-20's' percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.</li>
<li>Management is low-balling LT margins -- Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.</li>
<li>Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales -- TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.</li>
</ul>


Significant revenue guidance hike -- TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed 'mid-20's' percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.
Management is low-balling LT margins -- Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.
Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales -- TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.


We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects sales to grow by mid-20% YoY in USD in 2024, compared to low to mid-20% previously.</li>
<li>The N3/N5 capacity is very tight, and they are even working with customers for 2026 capacity requirements, while N2 is on track to enter MP in 4Q25.</li>
<li>A16 will enter MP in 2H26, and it's first process starts adopting backside power.</li>
</ul>


TSMC expects sales to grow by mid-20% YoY in USD in 2024, compared to low to mid-20% previously.
The N3/N5 capacity is very tight, and they are even working with customers for 2026 capacity requirements, while N2 is on track to enter MP in 4Q25.
A16 will enter MP in 2H26, and it's first process starts adopting backside power.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

<ul>
<li>We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.</li>
<li>While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.</li>
<li>We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.</li>
</ul>


We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.
While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.
We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.


TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders; Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What...

Andrew Lu

TSMC Shatters Q2 Expectations Bolstered by Strong AI Chip Demand

Amid booming demand for advanced chips, TSMC's stellar Q2 performance highlights its leadership in AI technology, despite ongoing supply challenges...

Mint Finance

We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

TSMC raises revenue guidance significantly for 2024E. We also see many signs that TSMC can earn higher LT margins than it is guiding. TSMC shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

TSMC anticipates mid-20% sales growth in USD for 2024, with tight N3/N5 capacity and plans for N2 to enter MP in 4Q25. A16 set to enter MP in 2H26...

Patrick Liao

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders; Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What...

Andrew Lu

TSMC Shatters Q2 Expectations Bolstered by Strong AI Chip Demand

Amid booming demand for advanced chips, TSMC's stellar Q2 performance highlights its leadership in AI technology, despite ongoing supply challenges...

Mint Finance

We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

​TSMC raises revenue guidance significantly for 2024E. We also see many signs that TSMC can earn higher LT margins than it is guiding. TSMC shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

​TSMC anticipates mid-20% sales growth in USD for 2024, with tight N3/N5 capacity and plans for N2 to enter MP in 4Q25. A16 set to enter MP in 2H26...

Patrick Liao

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC raises revenue guidance significantly for 2024E. We also see many signs that TSMC can earn higher LT margins than it is guiding. TSMC shows...

TSMC anticipates mid-20% sales growth in USD for 2024, with tight N3/N5 capacity and plans for N2 to enter MP in 4Q25. A16 set to enter MP in 2H26...