Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result</li>
<li>AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend</li>
<li>Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result
AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009</li>
<li>While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.
FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009
While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. 


<ul>
<li>Taiwan PC names have been the top losers over the recent period, after having previously been the top winners. Our Long Dell vs. Short Acer trade is doing well.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech was a top loser, falling along with its international Memory peers. Nevertheless, we note it underperformed Micron and SK Hynix. We continue to prefer SK Hynix for Memory.</li>
<li>CES is happening now and will be wrapping up Friday. We like our Dell vs. Taiwan PC names through the CES event. TSMC will be reporting results January 18th.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan PC names have been the top losers over the recent period, after having previously been the top winners. Our Long Dell vs. Short Acer trade is doing well.
Nanya Tech was a top loser, falling along with its international Memory peers. Nevertheless, we note it underperformed Micron and SK Hynix. We continue to prefer SK Hynix for Memory.
CES is happening now and will be wrapping up Friday. We like our Dell vs. Taiwan PC names through the CES event. TSMC will be reporting results January 18th.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.</li>
<li>We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.</li>
<li>1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?


Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

​TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

​Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...