Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today saw the publication of three different articles regarding the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> approach and offer to purchase all the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> </li>
<li>The first in the Nikkei said ATD could push offer a high price, even up to ¥8 trillion. The second mentioned debt financing being feasible because of prodigious cash flow.</li>
<li>The third in Bloomberg noted that 7&amp;i had requested the government upgrade its FEFTA status to "core", which would lead to a more burdensome/restrictive government approval process.</li>
</ul>


Today saw the publication of three different articles regarding the Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) approach and offer to purchase all the shares of Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) 
The first in the Nikkei said ATD could push offer a high price, even up to ¥8 trillion. The second mentioned debt financing being feasible because of prodigious cash flow.
The third in Bloomberg noted that 7&amp;i had requested the government upgrade its FEFTA status to "core", which would lead to a more burdensome/restrictive government approval process.


Updates on The Couche-Tard Deal for 7&I (3382 JP)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>. </li>
<li>The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.</li>
<li>Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.  </li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). 
The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.
Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.  


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week in Japan's retail sector: continued weakness in shopping mall development due to both falling demand from tenants and competition from online.</li>
<li>Don Quijote operator, Pan Pacific posted strong results, reflecting high demand from both locals looking for value and tourists browsing for fun.</li>
<li>The retail sector had a record year in FY23, but a big constraint is the labour shortage but, with many fit older Japanese, some employees are now over 80. </li>
</ul>


Last week in Japan's retail sector: continued weakness in shopping mall development due to both falling demand from tenants and competition from online.
Don Quijote operator, Pan Pacific posted strong results, reflecting high demand from both locals looking for value and tourists browsing for fun.
The retail sector had a record year in FY23, but a big constraint is the labour shortage but, with many fit older Japanese, some employees are now over 80. 


Japan's Retail Week: New Malls Slow, Lawson/Muji Get Closer, Donki Booms and Jobs for the over 80s

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of June 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~52%. The average premium YTD is ~47%. </li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of June 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~52%. The average premium YTD is ~47%. 
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio

<ul>
<li>The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.</li>
<li>Japan's drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. </li>
<li>The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.
Japan's drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. 
The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.


Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

Updates on The Couche-Tard Deal for 7&I (3382 JP)

The ATD deal for 3382 will be long-dated. It will take months, not weeks. Effectively, both parties want 3382's share price higher. If higher,...

Travis Lundy

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging to achieve. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low. Nevertheless,...

Arun George

Japan's Retail Week: New Malls Slow, Lawson/Muji Get Closer, Donki Booms and Jobs for the over 80s

Japan's retail sector in the last week: Shopping mall development slows, Don Quijote operator Pan Pacific sees strong demand from locals and...

Michael Causton

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio

For the month of June, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Updates on The Couche-Tard Deal for 7&I (3382 JP)

The ATD deal for 3382 will be long-dated. It will take months, not weeks. Effectively, both parties want 3382's share price higher. If higher,...

Travis Lundy

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging to achieve. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low. Nevertheless,...

Arun George

Japan's Retail Week: New Malls Slow, Lawson/Muji Get Closer, Donki Booms and Jobs for the over 80s

Japan's retail sector in the last week: Shopping mall development slows, Don Quijote operator Pan Pacific sees strong demand from locals and...

Michael Causton

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio

For the month of June, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

​The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Michael Causton

The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....