Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KDDI will complete its acquisition of a 50% share in Lawson this month and the chain will then delist.</li>
<li>KDDI is promising a rapid introduction of services and fresh ideas to leverage its new retail arm.</li>
<li>It will begin by unifying premium loyalty point membership under the Ponta brand and offer new services that it hopes will help boost share. What out LY.</li>
</ul>


KDDI will complete its acquisition of a 50% share in Lawson this month and the chain will then delist.
KDDI is promising a rapid introduction of services and fresh ideas to leverage its new retail arm.
It will begin by unifying premium loyalty point membership under the Ponta brand and offer new services that it hopes will help boost share. What out LY.


KDDI and Lawson: Loyalty Points Just the Start

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are bullish on Lawson and see fair value at Y7,500 per share based on 3% FY2/25 DPS of Y225/share</li>
<li>The domestic convenience store business is recovering post pandemic leading to a possible earnings beat</li>
<li>The market remains sceptical of mid-term growth drivers like Seijo Ishii and China expansion plans</li>
</ul>


We are bullish on Lawson and see fair value at Y7,500 per share based on 3% FY2/25 DPS of Y225/share
The domestic convenience store business is recovering post pandemic leading to a possible earnings beat
The market remains sceptical of mid-term growth drivers like Seijo Ishii and China expansion plans


Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.</li>
<li>Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.</li>
<li>Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.</li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.
Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.
Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>’s management is being overly conservative with FY22 guidance as they have lowered the domestic convenience store revenue and OP by ¥40.0bn and ¥3.0bn respectively.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the Chinese convenience store business is starting to turn profitable with an operating profit of ¥1.1bn in 1HFY22.</li>
<li>We think that the company could increase its consolidated FY22 OP estimate by around ¥10.0bn during the next two quarters.</li>
</ul>


We think Lawson Inc (2651 JP)’s management is being overly conservative with FY22 guidance as they have lowered the domestic convenience store revenue and OP by ¥40.0bn and ¥3.0bn respectively.
Meanwhile, the Chinese convenience store business is starting to turn profitable with an operating profit of ¥1.1bn in 1HFY22.
We think that the company could increase its consolidated FY22 OP estimate by around ¥10.0bn during the next two quarters.


Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

KDDI and Lawson: Loyalty Points Just the Start

KDDI's acquisition of 50% of Lawson completes this month, promising innovative services with the Ponta loyalty program the first step and the base...

Michael Causton

Lawson (2651) | Dividend Grower

Positive Q1 beat: Lawson reported +64% yoy growth in profit to Y26B. That significantly beat consensus estimates, but comps include an accounting...

Mark Chadwick

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

Lawson plans to list its upscale supermarket subsidiary Seijo Ishii. The latter is one of the best supermarket operators in the country and is...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Lawson: OP Beat Incoming

We think Lawson's management is being overly conservative with FY22 guidance as they have lowered the domestic convenience store revenue and OP by...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KDDI and Lawson: Loyalty Points Just the Start

​KDDI's acquisition of 50% of Lawson completes this month, promising innovative services with the Ponta loyalty program the first step and the base...

Michael Causton

Lawson (2651) | Dividend Grower

Positive Q1 beat: Lawson reported +64% yoy growth in profit to Y26B. That significantly beat consensus estimates, but comps include an accounting...

Mark Chadwick

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

Lawson plans to list its upscale supermarket subsidiary Seijo Ishii. The latter is one of the best supermarket operators in the country and is...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Lawson: OP Beat Incoming

We think Lawson's management is being overly conservative with FY22 guidance as they have lowered the domestic convenience store revenue and OP by...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

KDDI's acquisition of 50% of Lawson completes this month, promising innovative services with the Ponta loyalty program the first step and the base...