Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

KEYENCE CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells sensors and measuring instruments used for factory automation (FA) and high technology hobby products. The Company's products include fiber optic sensors, photoelectric sensors, programmable logic controllers (PLC), laser scan micrometers, bar code readers, and radio-controlled model cars.

<ul>
<li>Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.</li>
<li>The company's engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.</li>
<li>Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.</li>
</ul>


Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.
The company's engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.
Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.


Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation develops, sells and services Imaging, Information, and Document Solutions.  Its products include color films, digital cameras, photofinishing products and equipment.  The Group also manufactures medical and graphic art use equipment and materials, FPD materials, and optical devices, and provides services on office copy machines, printers, and related equipment.

<ul>
<li>Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron's biologic medicines.</li>
<li>Fujifilm's Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.</li>
<li>Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.</li>
</ul>


Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron's biologic medicines.
Fujifilm's Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.
Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.


Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

Taimee, Inc. develops software products. The Company produces internet media softwares, application programs, and other products. Taimee also provides marketing, brand promotion, and other services.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025. </li>
<li>Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand. </li>
<li>Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025. 
Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand. 
Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.


Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Adastria Co., Ltd. operates a chain of clothing stores in Japan. The Company also operates stores in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea.

<ul>
<li>Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adastria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11895:1" rel="noopener">Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)</a>’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.</li>
<li>Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.</li>
</ul>


Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.
While Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.
Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.


Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneta-money-bank-as-91531fc9-8a67-43d7-8182-cf45abd5ebca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28372:1" rel="noopener"></a> MF’s recent earnings was no surprise to us as we continued to highlight that the company’s business model is far inferior to its counterpart freee. </li>
<li>The last 2-3 quarterly results have made that discrepancy clear and MF’s non-BO SaaS businesses are only dead weight and have helped conceal weaknesses of its business model.</li>
<li>MF’s share price is down 19.3% YTD and think the market has finally come to terms that MF is losing ground whereas freee has managed to turn around its profitability.</li>
</ul>



Money Forward (3994 JP) MF’s recent earnings was no surprise to us as we continued to highlight that the company’s business model is far inferior to its counterpart freee. 
The last 2-3 quarterly results have made that discrepancy clear and MF’s non-BO SaaS businesses are only dead weight and have helped conceal weaknesses of its business model.
MF’s share price is down 19.3% YTD and think the market has finally come to terms that MF is losing ground whereas freee has managed to turn around its profitability.


Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

LightStream Research
Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

Large cash & securities holdings make it a beneficiary of rising Japanese interest rates. Unique business model and advance of automation support...

Scott Foster

Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

Fujifilm has secured $3bn manufacturing deal with Regeneron Pharma, showcasing significant growth and success of its Bio CDMO biz. Fujifilm is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

Adastria shifts from specialty retail to platform model, with modest growth targets but potential for operational improvement and profit upside.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

Money Forward's recent earnings was no surprise to us and it highlights its inferior business model compared to freee, with non-BO SaaS businesses...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

Large cash & securities holdings make it a beneficiary of rising Japanese interest rates. Unique business model and advance of automation support...

Scott Foster

Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

​Fujifilm has secured $3bn manufacturing deal with Regeneron Pharma, showcasing significant growth and success of its Bio CDMO biz. Fujifilm is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point

​Timee's share price has been volatile despite reporting strong earnings. As the market leader, Timee's earnings have further potential to expand....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

​Adastria shifts from specialty retail to platform model, with modest growth targets but potential for operational improvement and profit upside.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Money Forward: Business Model Begins to Breakdown

​Money Forward's recent earnings was no surprise to us and it highlights its inferior business model compared to freee, with non-BO SaaS businesses...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Fujifilm has secured $3bn manufacturing deal with Regeneron Pharma, showcasing significant growth and success of its Bio CDMO biz. Fujifilm is...

Timee's share price has been volatile despite reporting strong earnings. As the market leader, Timee's earnings have further potential to expand....

Adastria shifts from specialty retail to platform model, with modest growth targets but potential for operational improvement and profit upside.

Money Forward's recent earnings was no surprise to us and it highlights its inferior business model compared to freee, with non-BO SaaS businesses...