Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

<ul>
<li>Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia's new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.</li>
<li>Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up. </li>
<li>Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year's EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade. </li>
</ul>


Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia's new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.
Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up. 
Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year's EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade. 


Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

<ul>
<li>Kioxia has announced the terms for its IPO, and plans to raise $730m through issuing new shares as well as offer by existing shareholders, at a market capitalisation of $819bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> 's earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed compared to peers Micron and SK Hynix. Earnings are approaching a new peak.</li>
<li>Kioxia’s implied valuation multiples are at a deep discount to peer multiples, suggesting there is significant upside to the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia has announced the terms for its IPO, and plans to raise $730m through issuing new shares as well as offer by existing shareholders, at a market capitalisation of $819bn.

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) 's earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed compared to peers Micron and SK Hynix. Earnings are approaching a new peak.
Kioxia’s implied valuation multiples are at a deep discount to peer multiples, suggesting there is significant upside to the indicative IPO price range.


Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.</li>
<li>The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.</li>
<li>Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. </li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) ’s long waited IPO is now live and plans to raise US$700m at a much lower valuation of US$4.8bn vs price paid by Bain 6-years ago.
The company’s IPO is very timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but margins have continued to trail peers who have a more balanced product portfolio.
Kioxia’s valuation has declined while market sentiment for memory names has also been that great. We will discuss our valuation in a follow-up insight. 


Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.</li>
<li>Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.</li>
<li>The long Keisei Electric, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.
Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.
The long Keisei Electric, short Oriental Land (4661 JP) trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.


Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).</li>
<li>The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.


SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

LightStream Research
Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

New factories in India, water-cooling units for Blackwell equipped servers and other factors to support sales growth and higher margins. 17.5x P/E...

Scott Foster

Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Kioxia's implied valuation multiples are at a deep discounts to peer multiples. The company’s earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

SF Holding seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through its Hong Kong listing. Our valuation analysis suggests that the offering is attractive at the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

New factories in India, water-cooling units for Blackwell equipped servers and other factors to support sales growth and higher margins. 17.5x P/E...

Scott Foster

Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Kioxia's implied valuation multiples are at a deep discounts to peer multiples. The company’s earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kioxia IPO: Initial Thoughts on Financials and Valuation

​Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

​Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

SF Holding seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through its Hong Kong listing. Our valuation analysis suggests that the offering is attractive at the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kioxia's IPO is timely as earnings have almost approached the cycle peak, but the proposed valuation is at a huge discount to what Bain paid six...

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...