Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.</li>
<li>Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.</li>
<li>Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.</li>
</ul>


The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.
Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.
Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.


Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

<ul>
<li>In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.</li>
<li>We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.</li>
<li>Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.</li>
</ul>


In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.
We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.
Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.


Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bilibili's &lt;Three Kingdom: MDTX&gt; continues to show strong monetization performance, Based on our data tracking, we are raising the annual grossing estimate by 25% to approximately RMB 5.5 billion.</li>
<li>NetEase's &lt;Naraka Mobile&gt; has surpassed 40 million pre-registrations, making it the most pre-registered game in NetEase's history. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 20% to RMB 12 billion.</li>
<li>Tencent's &lt;FGS&gt; has seen a continuous rise in popularity following the release of the new mode. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 10% to RMB 13 billion.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili's &lt;Three Kingdom: MDTX&gt; continues to show strong monetization performance, Based on our data tracking, we are raising the annual grossing estimate by 25% to approximately RMB 5.5 billion.
NetEase's &lt;Naraka Mobile&gt; has surpassed 40 million pre-registrations, making it the most pre-registered game in NetEase's history. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 20% to RMB 12 billion.
Tencent's &lt;FGS&gt; has seen a continuous rise in popularity following the release of the new mode. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 10% to RMB 13 billion.


Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Tanvi Arora

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA operates a wide range of hypermarkets, supermarkets, and  convenience stores.  The Company operates in Asia and Europe.

<p>Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).<br/> We assess Casino Guichard-Perrachon's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental score, while the Social pillar is "Strong". We assess Governance as "Weak" due to a lack of data following the company's recent debt restructuring, which led to a change of control. Controversies are "Material", while Disclosure is "Strong". <br/></p>

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Casino Guichard-Perrachon's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental score, while the Social pillar is "Strong". We assess Governance as "Weak" due to a lack of data following the company's recent debt restructuring, which led to a change of control. Controversies are "Material", while Disclosure is "Strong".  

Casino Guichard-Perrachon - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>We are against the majority opinion that Fed will cut rate in September meeting. Also majority forecast there will be 1-2 rate cuts this year but we forecast none.</li>
<li>CORE PCE Price Index has been treading above 2% target, though it is on a decreasing trend two streaks on a roll and since Jan 2023.</li>
<li>We believe instead of targeting at the static CORE PCE Index for one data point, the Fed will consider a dynamic series of data points, known as cumulative inflation targeting.</li>
</ul>


We are against the majority opinion that Fed will cut rate in September meeting. Also majority forecast there will be 1-2 rate cuts this year but we forecast none.
CORE PCE Price Index has been treading above 2% target, though it is on a decreasing trend two streaks on a roll and since Jan 2023.
We believe instead of targeting at the static CORE PCE Index for one data point, the Fed will consider a dynamic series of data points, known as cumulative inflation targeting.


Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year

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Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

The 3rd plenum in China will address key points including unemployment and healthcare benefits, Hukou reform, inheritance tax, and housing market...

Alex Ng

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Alex Ng

Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

Top Chinese gaming companies Bilibili, NetEase, and Tencent are seeing strong monetization performance, with estimates raised for annual grossing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Casino Guichard-Perrachon - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Casino...

Lucror Analytics

Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year

Contrary to popular opinion, we predict no rate cuts this year as Fed may shift focus to cumulative inflation targeting instead of static data...

Alex Ng

Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

​The 3rd plenum in China will address key points including unemployment and healthcare benefits, Hukou reform, inheritance tax, and housing market...

Alex Ng

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

​Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Alex Ng

Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

​Top Chinese gaming companies Bilibili, NetEase, and Tencent are seeing strong monetization performance, with estimates raised for annual grossing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Casino Guichard-Perrachon - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Casino...

Lucror Analytics

Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year

​Contrary to popular opinion, we predict no rate cuts this year as Fed may shift focus to cumulative inflation targeting instead of static data...

Alex Ng

The 3rd plenum in China will address key points including unemployment and healthcare benefits, Hukou reform, inheritance tax, and housing market...

Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Top Chinese gaming companies Bilibili, NetEase, and Tencent are seeing strong monetization performance, with estimates raised for annual grossing...

Contrary to popular opinion, we predict no rate cuts this year as Fed may shift focus to cumulative inflation targeting instead of static data...