Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

Petroleos Mexicanos operates as an oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company offers pipeline carriage, petrochemical distributor and shipping centers, logistics, and fuel commercialization services. Petroleos Mexicanos serves customers in Mexico.

<ul>
<li>We believe that PEMEX’s reclassification, stronger linkage to the sovereign, and its payment program to stabilize balances with suppliers and contractors will support further spread compression.</li>
<li>The spread pickup is more appealing at the belly and long end than at the shorter-dated notes, as most PEMEX bonds maturing before 2029 trade at or near par.</li>
<li>3Q24 results continued to highlight PEMEX’s vulnerability and its significant reliance on government support.</li>
</ul>


We believe that PEMEX’s reclassification, stronger linkage to the sovereign, and its payment program to stabilize balances with suppliers and contractors will support further spread compression.
The spread pickup is more appealing at the belly and long end than at the shorter-dated notes, as most PEMEX bonds maturing before 2029 trade at or near par.
3Q24 results continued to highlight PEMEX’s vulnerability and its significant reliance on government support.


PEMEX 3Q24: Government Support Continues to Strengthen

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Biocon Biologics India Limited of India operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company offers prevention, alleviation, and treatment for chronic diseases such as diabetes, oncology, cancer, and autoimmune diseases. Biocon Biologics India serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Biocon Biologics' (BBL) and Biocon Limited's (BL) Q2/24-25 results (the first release after the USD notes issuance) were slightly weaker than expected, with lower than forecast growth and earnings.</li>
<li>Leverage appears high at the BBL level, but seems better at BL's level.</li>
<li>Liquidity appears weak, albeit this is offset by BL's large stakes in listed companies.</li>
</ul>


Biocon Biologics' (BBL) and Biocon Limited's (BL) Q2/24-25 results (the first release after the USD notes issuance) were slightly weaker than expected, with lower than forecast growth and earnings.
Leverage appears high at the BBL level, but seems better at BL's level.
Liquidity appears weak, albeit this is offset by BL's large stakes in listed companies.


Biocon Biologics - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>In the US, September personal spending came in above estimates at 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.3% revised p), while personal income edged up 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).</li>
<li>Separately, the September PCE price index edged down to 2.1% y-o-y (2.1% e / 2.3% revised p), and was up 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.1% p).</li>
<li>The core PCE price index rose 2.7% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.7% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, September personal spending came in above estimates at 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.3% revised p), while personal income edged up 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).
Separately, the September PCE price index edged down to 2.1% y-o-y (2.1% e / 2.3% revised p), and was up 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.1% p).
The core PCE price index rose 2.7% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.7% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p). 


Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

<ul>
<li>Recent events are credit and spread positive in the near-term for EA.</li>
<li>Q2 results are no surprise while we remain concerned on a declining recurring revenues.</li>
<li>We maintain our stance on no recommendation on EA's THB bonds for the lack of liquidity and reliable quotes.</li>
</ul>


Recent events are credit and spread positive in the near-term for EA.
Q2 results are no surprise while we remain concerned on a declining recurring revenues.
We maintain our stance on no recommendation on EA's THB bonds for the lack of liquidity and reliable quotes.


Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Credit

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India.  The Company's port provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

<ul>
<li>Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has reported stable H1/24-25 results.</li>
<li>Cargo volumes grew 9% y-o-y, below management’s full-year guidance of a 13-18% increase, owing to one-off disruptions.</li>
<li>That said, EBITDA climbed 13% (at the higher end of forecasts), thanks to better capacity utilisation and improved operating efficiency at the company's domestic and international ports.</li>
</ul>


Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has reported stable H1/24-25 results.
Cargo volumes grew 9% y-o-y, below management’s full-year guidance of a 13-18% increase, owing to one-off disruptions.
That said, EBITDA climbed 13% (at the higher end of forecasts), thanks to better capacity utilisation and improved operating efficiency at the company's domestic and international ports.


Adani Ports - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Credit
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