Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

SUN CORPORATION operates mainly Pachinko related business, information and communication business.  Pachinko related business includes developing, manufacturing and selling a system to control and monitor pachinko machine, and manage business operation.  Sun Corp. also manufactures Pachinko and household appliances and develops game software for family use.

<ul>
<li>Today, the final day of the Tender Offer that True Wind Capital launched on 10 June 2024 to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>, TWC raised its price to ¥4,750/share./</li>
<li>They also lowered their minimum from 3.7934mm shares (17.0%) to 3.3472mm shares (15.0%).</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a> had traded higher, SunCorp had too, and even though shares fell today, they are at ¥4,785/share.</li>
</ul>


Today, the final day of the Tender Offer that True Wind Capital launched on 10 June 2024 to buy 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP), TWC raised its price to ¥4,750/share./
They also lowered their minimum from 3.7934mm shares (17.0%) to 3.3472mm shares (15.0%).
As Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) had traded higher, SunCorp had too, and even though shares fell today, they are at ¥4,785/share.


True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.</li>
<li>The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.</li>
<li>On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.
The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.
On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.


Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable / Event-Driven

TATSUTA ELECTRIC WIRE AND CABLE CO., LTD. manufactures wires and cables. The Company's products include power cables, optic fiber cables and its related devices, bonding wires, and water leakage detection systems.  Tatsuta Wire & Cable also produces environmentally friendly cables.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> announced its deal for affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a> 18-plus months ago. China approvals held it up more than a year.</li>
<li>Last month, they launched. The sector was up a lot. TOPIX was up a lot. The stock had recently been trading through terms. But ENEOS didn't bump the price.</li>
<li>A month later, and the tender was supposed to have closed Friday 19 July. It didn't. ENEOS extended, for no reason, which suggests they don't have the shares. </li>
</ul>



ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) announced its deal for affiliate Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP) 18-plus months ago. China approvals held it up more than a year.
Last month, they launched. The sector was up a lot. TOPIX was up a lot. The stock had recently been trading through terms. But ENEOS didn't bump the price.
A month later, and the tender was supposed to have closed Friday 19 July. It didn't. ENEOS extended, for no reason, which suggests they don't have the shares. 


ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don't Have The Shares

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li><em>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</em></li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?</li>
<li>AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?
AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited develops and distributes software products. The Company produces terminal intelligent processors, cloud intelligent chips, accelerator cards, intelligent computing cluster systems, and other products. Cambricon Technologies also produces computer peripheral products.

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.</li>
<li>Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.
Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.