Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 586 for the week ending 19/Jul, rising for the second time in the last three weeks.  </li>
<li>US oil rig count fell by 1 to 477, declining for the second straight week. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 103, after falling by one the week prior.</li>
<li>The EIA has increased its US crude production forecasts in its latest STEO report, raising them by 0.8% YoY for 2024 and 0.4% YoY for 2025. </li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 586 for the week ending 19/Jul, rising for the second time in the last three weeks.  
US oil rig count fell by 1 to 477, declining for the second straight week. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 103, after falling by one the week prior.
The EIA has increased its US crude production forecasts in its latest STEO report, raising them by 0.8% YoY for 2024 and 0.4% YoY for 2025. 


Pickup in Gas Rigs Drive U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Higher

Equity Bottom-Up

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies' robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.</li>
<li>Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.</li>
<li>Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment's adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies' robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.
Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.
Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment's adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.


TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.</li>
<li>As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>UBS expects Chevron's Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.</li>
</ul>


US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.
As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
UBS expects Chevron's Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.


[ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors' Targets Cut

Halliburton Company provides energy services and engineering and construction services, as well as manufactures products for the energy industry.  The Company offers services and products and integrated solutions to customers in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas.

<ul>
<li>Halliburton forecasts low double-digit revenue growth from its international business and flat revenue growth from North America in 2024.</li>
<li>Management expects sequential margin growth of 25-75 bps in its Drilling &amp; Evaluation and Completion &amp; Production segments in Q2 2024.</li>
<li>Halliburton expects its FCF to rise 10% YoY in 2024. The company returned nearly 60% of its FCF to shareholders in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Halliburton forecasts low double-digit revenue growth from its international business and flat revenue growth from North America in 2024.
Management expects sequential margin growth of 25-75 bps in its Drilling &amp; Evaluation and Completion &amp; Production segments in Q2 2024.
Halliburton expects its FCF to rise 10% YoY in 2024. The company returned nearly 60% of its FCF to shareholders in 2023.


[Earnings Preview] Halliburton: Leans on International Operations Amid North American Weakness

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending 12/Jul, after rising by 4 the previous week. </li>
<li>US oil rig count fell by 1 to 478, indicating 59 fewer oil rigs as compared to the same week last year. It is at its lowest since December 2021.</li>
<li>Despite a decline in the US oil rig count, US crude oil production matched the all-time high production of 13.3m bpd for the week ending 5/Jul, according to the EIA.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending 12/Jul, after rising by 4 the previous week. 
US oil rig count fell by 1 to 478, indicating 59 fewer oil rigs as compared to the same week last year. It is at its lowest since December 2021.
Despite a decline in the US oil rig count, US crude oil production matched the all-time high production of 13.3m bpd for the week ending 5/Jul, according to the EIA.


U.S. Oil and Gas Rig Count Continues on Downward Trend