Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.


[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul>
<li>US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%. </li>
<li>Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.</li>
</ul>


US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%. 
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose 6.1% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by China's policy easing plans and supply concerns from sanctions on Russia and Iran.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell 1.15 from 1.24 (06/Dec) last week, as call volume rose by 21.7% WoW while put volume increased by 12.6%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR fell to 0.85 from 0.88 last week. Call OI rose by 7.0% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose 6.1% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by China's policy easing plans and supply concerns from sanctions on Russia and Iran.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell 1.15 from 1.24 (06/Dec) last week, as call volume rose by 21.7% WoW while put volume increased by 12.6%.  
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.85 from 0.88 last week. Call OI rose by 7.0% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/50] WTI Gains on China Optimism and Sanction-Driven Concerns

<ul>
<li>OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.
The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.
The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.


OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for Fifth Straight Month; EIA Lowers Price Outlook on Supply Glut

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.
US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.


[ETP 2024/50] WTI Rebounds on Outlook of Better Demand in 2025; Henry Hub Rises but Remains Volatile

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order