Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.</li>
<li>Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.</li>
<li>The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.


OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.</li>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.


US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.
US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

<ul>
<li>In Q3, TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts by 6.4% but missed EPS estimates by 3.7%. Revenue and adjusted net income fell by 2.8% YoY and 37%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ average liquids price realisation fell 2.4% YoY, European refining margins dropped 84.7%, while LNG price realisation rose 3.7% YoY.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies' Q3 cash flow fell 27% YoY to USD 6.8 billion. It announced USD 2 billion in Q4 buybacks and a 0.79 euro/share interim dividend.</li>
</ul>


In Q3, TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts by 6.4% but missed EPS estimates by 3.7%. Revenue and adjusted net income fell by 2.8% YoY and 37%, respectively.
TotalEnergies’ average liquids price realisation fell 2.4% YoY, European refining margins dropped 84.7%, while LNG price realisation rose 3.7% YoY.
TotalEnergies' Q3 cash flow fell 27% YoY to USD 6.8 billion. It announced USD 2 billion in Q4 buybacks and a 0.79 euro/share interim dividend.


[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies' Profitability Weighed Down by Sharp Decline in Refining Margins

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

<ul>
<li>BP’s revenue declined 11.3% YoY, missing estimates by 4.3%, while EPS fell 27.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3.8%. Underlying net profit dropped 31.2% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.</li>
<li>BP’s Q3 performance was impacted by weak oil prices, lower refining margins, and soft trading results, leading to its lowest underlying net profit since Q3 2020.</li>
<li>Total upstream production rose 3% YoY, with liquids production up 5%. BP also achieved 80% YoY growth in its EV charging business, selling 1 terawatt-hour of electricity globally.</li>
</ul>


BP’s revenue declined 11.3% YoY, missing estimates by 4.3%, while EPS fell 27.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3.8%. Underlying net profit dropped 31.2% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.
BP’s Q3 performance was impacted by weak oil prices, lower refining margins, and soft trading results, leading to its lowest underlying net profit since Q3 2020.
Total upstream production rose 3% YoY, with liquids production up 5%. BP also achieved 80% YoY growth in its EV charging business, selling 1 terawatt-hour of electricity globally.


[Earnings Review] BP Posts Worst Earnings Since Q3 2020 as Weak Oil Prices Hit Margins

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Suhas Reddy
Oil and Gas
• Mint Finance

OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

OPEC cut its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecast, while EIA and IEA raised projections for 2024 but lowered it for 2025. Supply is expected to...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

US oil and gas rig count drops slightly after remaining flat for straight weeks, US oil production slightly decreased but remains high.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies' Profitability Weighed Down by Sharp Decline in Refining Margins

TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts but missed EPS estimates in Q3, with falling revenue and net income. Cash flow dropped 27% YoY but the firm...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Posts Worst Earnings Since Q3 2020 as Weak Oil Prices Hit Margins

BP fell 5.4% on 29/Oct after reporting its lowest earnings since Q3 2020, with revenue and profit hit by weak crude prices and falling refining...

Mint Finance

OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

​OPEC cut its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecast, while EIA and IEA raised projections for 2024 but lowered it for 2025. Supply is expected to...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

​US oil and gas rig count drops slightly after remaining flat for straight weeks, US oil production slightly decreased but remains high.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies' Profitability Weighed Down by Sharp Decline in Refining Margins

​TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts but missed EPS estimates in Q3, with falling revenue and net income. Cash flow dropped 27% YoY but the firm...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Posts Worst Earnings Since Q3 2020 as Weak Oil Prices Hit Margins

BP fell 5.4% on 29/Oct after reporting its lowest earnings since Q3 2020, with revenue and profit hit by weak crude prices and falling refining...

Mint Finance

OPEC cut its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecast, while EIA and IEA raised projections for 2024 but lowered it for 2025. Supply is expected to...

US oil and gas rig count drops slightly after remaining flat for straight weeks, US oil production slightly decreased but remains high.

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts but missed EPS estimates in Q3, with falling revenue and net income. Cash flow dropped 27% YoY but the firm...