Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Oriental Watch Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, trades watches and invests in properties.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-watch-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19950:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Watch (398 HK)</a> is navigating a challenging demand environment with Watch &amp; Jewelry sales in HK subdued at -21% YoY for Jan-Feb 2025, according to the Department of Statistics.</li>
<li>The bright spot is that China sales continue to hold up and account for more than 73% of the company's sales. Fortunately, Rolex could also increase its allocation to China.</li>
<li>We expect a 15%-20% YoY drop in FY25 profits. A 100% payout results in a 12.0% dividend yield, and 65% of the market capitalization is in cash. </li>
</ul>



Oriental Watch (398 HK) is navigating a challenging demand environment with Watch &amp; Jewelry sales in HK subdued at -21% YoY for Jan-Feb 2025, according to the Department of Statistics.
The bright spot is that China sales continue to hold up and account for more than 73% of the company's sales. Fortunately, Rolex could also increase its allocation to China.
We expect a 15%-20% YoY drop in FY25 profits. A 100% payout results in a 12.0% dividend yield, and 65% of the market capitalization is in cash. 


Oriental Watch (398 HK): Navigating a Tough Demand Environment With 65% of Market Cap in Cash

DigiPlus Interactive Corp. provides gaming and leisure facilities. The Company offers multi-gaming platforms, numerous products, and games with a strong distribution network of entertainment facilities in neighborhood sites. DigiPlus Interactive serves customers in the Philippines.

<ul>
<li>PAGCOR forecasts a strong FY25 industry GGR of 450 bn pesos (20% YoY), of which the share of bingo/casino games is expected to be 50% (~225 bn pesos).</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a>  maintains a share of 45% (vs last year's 47%), revenue will increase by 33% to 100 bn pesos. </li>
<li>With the recent correction due to the current geopolitical situation, the stock trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY24/FY25e, 35% ROCE, with multiple catalysts, e.g, a great Q1FY25 and expansion in Brazil.</li>
</ul>


PAGCOR forecasts a strong FY25 industry GGR of 450 bn pesos (20% YoY), of which the share of bingo/casino games is expected to be 50% (~225 bn pesos).
If DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)  maintains a share of 45% (vs last year's 47%), revenue will increase by 33% to 100 bn pesos. 
With the recent correction due to the current geopolitical situation, the stock trades at 12.2x/9.5x FY24/FY25e, 35% ROCE, with multiple catalysts, e.g, a great Q1FY25 and expansion in Brazil.


DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM): Gleanings From the Annual Report FY24 and Management Meeting

Crystal International Group Limited manufactures apparels. The Company produces casual clothes, jeans, personal under wears, sweaters, sports garments, and other products. Crystal International Group markets its products in Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>Tariff introductions in Vietnam were 46%, PRC 34%, Bangladesh 37%, Indonesia 32%, etc, have rocked the textile complex, and share prices have reacted negatively. </li>
<li>The companies with the maximum revenue exposure to the US market are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a>, with 47%, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crystal International (2232 HK)</a>, with 38%, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lever-style-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35760:1" rel="noopener">Lever Style (1346 HK)</a>, with 58%.</li>
<li>We anticipate that the negative sentiment will continue to hinder the sector until a reasonable negotiation occurs. In the meantime, there are no beneficiaries in this trade war.</li>
</ul>


Tariff introductions in Vietnam were 46%, PRC 34%, Bangladesh 37%, Indonesia 32%, etc, have rocked the textile complex, and share prices have reacted negatively. 
The companies with the maximum revenue exposure to the US market are Stella International (1836 HK), with 47%, Crystal International (2232 HK), with 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK), with 58%.
We anticipate that the negative sentiment will continue to hinder the sector until a reasonable negotiation occurs. In the meantime, there are no beneficiaries in this trade war.


HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Tariff Drag On The Sector

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4KUxqrU1aU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment case</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  </li>
<li>The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.</li>
<li>The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coziron-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17698:1" rel="noopener">Coziron Resources (CZR AU)</a>, which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. </li>
</ul>


Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

CNMC Goldmine Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd. explores for gold and processes mined ore into gold dore.  The Company operates in Kelantan State of Malaysia.

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">CNMC Goldmine Holdings (CNMC SP)</a> is a cash-rich (net cash: 20 million SGD) gold play listed on the SGX with assets in Malaysia. Its market cap is 155 million SGD.</li>
<li>The company is a high-cost gold play, with cash costs of 1200 USD/oz excluding royalties. It is in the process of ramping production from 26,000 oz to 34,000 oz/annum.</li>
<li>Based on a 3000 USD/oz gold price, the stock trades at 5.7x PE, 4.0x EV-EBITDA with a 2.9% dividend yield (based on a 30% payout ratio). </li>
</ul>



CNMC Goldmine Holdings (CNMC SP) is a cash-rich (net cash: 20 million SGD) gold play listed on the SGX with assets in Malaysia. Its market cap is 155 million SGD.
The company is a high-cost gold play, with cash costs of 1200 USD/oz excluding royalties. It is in the process of ramping production from 26,000 oz to 34,000 oz/annum.
Based on a 3000 USD/oz gold price, the stock trades at 5.7x PE, 4.0x EV-EBITDA with a 2.9% dividend yield (based on a 30% payout ratio). 


CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd. (CNMC SP): Cash Rich Gold Play In Singapore

A buy-side analyst with over 15 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.