Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.</li>
<li>Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.</li>
<li>The long Keisei Electric, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.
Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.
The long Keisei Electric, short Oriental Land (4661 JP) trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.


Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Equity Capital Markets

Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. operates railway businesses. The Company conducts passenger rail transportation, urban design and lifestyle creation, real estate, and other projects. Tokyo Metro serves customers in Japan.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> operates 9 out of the 14 subway lines that provides essential public transportation services within the Greater Tokyo area. </li>
<li>Many are unaware of Tokyo Metro’s cost savings, and we believe it could reach ¥110bn OP, exceeding the ¥100bn OP that most currently expect.</li>
<li>Even without factoring in the cost savings, the indicative IPO price appears reasonably cheap, as it’s priced near the lower end of peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) operates 9 out of the 14 subway lines that provides essential public transportation services within the Greater Tokyo area. 
Many are unaware of Tokyo Metro’s cost savings, and we believe it could reach ¥110bn OP, exceeding the ¥100bn OP that most currently expect.
Even without factoring in the cost savings, the indicative IPO price appears reasonably cheap, as it’s priced near the lower end of peer multiples.


Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

Equity Bottom-Up

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> issued a response to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>’s non-binding acquisition proposal.</li>
<li>At $14.86 per share, Seven &amp; I’s special committee stated that the offer significantly undervalues the company.</li>
<li>The response also highlighted that the proposal fails to address the numerous and substantial regulatory challenges the transaction would encounter from U.S. competition authorities.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) issued a response to Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)’s non-binding acquisition proposal.
At $14.86 per share, Seven &amp; I’s special committee stated that the offer significantly undervalues the company.
The response also highlighted that the proposal fails to address the numerous and substantial regulatory challenges the transaction would encounter from U.S. competition authorities.


Seven & I Says Not Enough to Alimentation Couche-Tard, Warns of US FTC Barriers

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a> shares fell 28% on Monday after a 3% revenue miss, with shares dropping an additional 4% yesterday.</li>
<li>The results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify such a sharp price reaction.</li>
<li>However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in profits triggered a significant sell-off.</li>
</ul>



PDD Holdings (PDD US) shares fell 28% on Monday after a 3% revenue miss, with shares dropping an additional 4% yesterday.
The results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify such a sharp price reaction.
However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in profits triggered a significant sell-off.


Pinduoduo: Anticipating Slower Growth And Potential Profit Dip

<ul>
<li>It was reported yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> has put forward a bold proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The offer price remains undisclosed, but the market may be anticipating a significant premium based on the share price movement following the news.</li>
<li>However, we believe the offer price could fall short of market expectations, and it is likely that Seven &amp; i will reject the proposal.</li>
</ul>


It was reported yesterday that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) has put forward a bold proposal to acquire Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).
The offer price remains undisclosed, but the market may be anticipating a significant premium based on the share price movement following the news.
However, we believe the offer price could fall short of market expectations, and it is likely that Seven &amp; i will reject the proposal.


Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I's Pride on the Line

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri
Equity Analyst
• LightStream Research

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) could exceed expectations with cost savings, reaching ¥110bn OP, making its IPO price appear cheap compared to peers.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Says Not Enough to Alimentation Couche-Tard, Warns of US FTC Barriers

Obtaining regulatory approvals will likely prove challenging, potentially requiring the divestment of a significant number of stores.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pinduoduo: Anticipating Slower Growth And Potential Profit Dip

PDD's results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify 32% sell off. However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I's Pride on the Line

Alimentation Couche-Tard makes bold proposal to acquire Seven & I Holdings, but offer price may fall short of market expectations.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

​Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

​Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) could exceed expectations with cost savings, reaching ¥110bn OP, making its IPO price appear cheap compared to peers.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Says Not Enough to Alimentation Couche-Tard, Warns of US FTC Barriers

Obtaining regulatory approvals will likely prove challenging, potentially requiring the divestment of a significant number of stores.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pinduoduo: Anticipating Slower Growth And Potential Profit Dip

PDD's results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify 32% sell off. However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I's Pride on the Line

​Alimentation Couche-Tard makes bold proposal to acquire Seven & I Holdings, but offer price may fall short of market expectations.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) could exceed expectations with cost savings, reaching ¥110bn OP, making its IPO price appear cheap compared to peers.

Alimentation Couche-Tard makes bold proposal to acquire Seven & I Holdings, but offer price may fall short of market expectations.