Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;</li>
<li>Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;</li>
<li>We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.</li>
</ul>


After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;
Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;
We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.


China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

Equity Bottom-Up

Agora, Inc. provides communication software solutions. The Company offers video, voice, and live interactive streaming platform to interact and engage with others online. Agora serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Agora share price rallied 34% on C3Q24 earning call. During the call Agora outlined plans for large scale layoffs and committed to turn profitable for full year 2025;</li>
<li>With the business rationalization, cooperation with OpenAI now becomes the only growth driver for the future. We believe with Agora's operation-oriented business model, there is a fair chance for success;</li>
<li>Considering the price cut speed of 10x in one year from Chat GPT, the audio GAI price lower from US$9/hour to US$1/hour could happen within one year.</li>
</ul>


Agora share price rallied 34% on C3Q24 earning call. During the call Agora outlined plans for large scale layoffs and committed to turn profitable for full year 2025;
With the business rationalization, cooperation with OpenAI now becomes the only growth driver for the future. We believe with Agora's operation-oriented business model, there is a fair chance for success;
Considering the price cut speed of 10x in one year from Chat GPT, the audio GAI price lower from US$9/hour to US$1/hour could happen within one year.


Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI

<ul>
<li>Chinese government launched a special regulation to address algorithm of major Internet platforms, outlining 21 rectification requirements, which impacted Meituan, TRIP.com, and social media companies;</li>
<li>However, The rectification measures focused mostly on user operation, algorithm registration, and compliance, with an aim to strengthen government control over public opinion, but not on monetization;</li>
<li>We maintain that Chinese government needs the Internet platforms to boost consumption and employment, as manifested by Premier Li Qiang's recent labeling  of Internet as New Quality Productivity Force.</li>
</ul>


Chinese government launched a special regulation to address algorithm of major Internet platforms, outlining 21 rectification requirements, which impacted Meituan, TRIP.com, and social media companies;
However, The rectification measures focused mostly on user operation, algorithm registration, and compliance, with an aim to strengthen government control over public opinion, but not on monetization;
We maintain that Chinese government needs the Internet platforms to boost consumption and employment, as manifested by Premier Li Qiang's recent labeling  of Internet as New Quality Productivity Force.


Algorithm Regulation on China Internet Is A Slap on the Wrist

<ul>
<li>Last week, China's RmbB12tn debt swap plan fall short of investors' expectations. The pattern of trying to control the release of stimulus and manage the expectations is obvious;</li>
<li>We notice that the government has injected more-than-required liquidity to the bank system. Such magnitude can only be explained by preparation for a long, drawn-out war; </li>
<li>MOF's injection to banks to beef up capital adequacy ratio likely indicates the amount of stimulus that is about to happen to reflate the balance sheets of the local governments.</li>
</ul>


Last week, China's RmbB12tn debt swap plan fall short of investors' expectations. The pattern of trying to control the release of stimulus and manage the expectations is obvious;
We notice that the government has injected more-than-required liquidity to the bank system. Such magnitude can only be explained by preparation for a long, drawn-out war; 
MOF's injection to banks to beef up capital adequacy ratio likely indicates the amount of stimulus that is about to happen to reflate the balance sheets of the local governments.


China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

<ul>
<li>Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;</li>
<li>We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;</li>
<li>However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.</li>
</ul>


Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;
We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;
However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.


Independent Insight Provider, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Mr. Andy (Hongyao) Fu is responsible for Consumer, Travel, Social Service, SaaS coverages at Blue Lotus. Prior to joining Blue Lotus, Andy worked at Evalueserve as a research associate, covering the China Internet sector. He received his master's degree in University of New South Wales and bachelor's degree (with Honours) in Victoria University of Wellington. Andy is a CFA charterholder.

Andy Fu
Independent Insight Provider
• Blue Lotus Research Institute

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China implements new regulations targeting online platform algorithms, impacting companies like Meituan. But we see the small penalty as a de...

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China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

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MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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​China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI

​Agora's share price surged after announcing layoffs and commitment to profitability by 2025, with cooperation with OpenAI as key growth driver....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Algorithm Regulation on China Internet Is A Slap on the Wrist

​China implements new regulations targeting online platform algorithms, impacting companies like Meituan. But we see the small penalty as a de...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

​China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Here Is a Trillion Rmb Stimulus

​MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Agora's share price surged after announcing layoffs and commitment to profitability by 2025, with cooperation with OpenAI as key growth driver....

China implements new regulations targeting online platform algorithms, impacting companies like Meituan. But we see the small penalty as a de...

China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...