Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Despite the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for November 2020 (with payrolls rising by just 245K versus the consensus expectation of 469K), the US economy otherwise remains in robust health. The ISM manufacturing PMI gauges for October and November were the strongest two readings in 2020, with the leading indicator (new orders) suggesting that manufacturing will strengthen substantially further in 1H 2021. ISM's services PMI (56.3) was marginally (1.3 points) weaker in October-November than the June-September average, but still suggestive of a stable economy, with new orders (58) pointing to a healthy 1H 2021. The surging toll of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US (which both climbed to new records for 7-day moving averages in the latest week) will bring forth an aggressive federal-government response from the incoming Biden administration, slightly slowing the momentum of the US economy in 1Q 2021. However, the emerging Biden cabinet is essentially a restoration of the centrist elements of the Obama-Biden team, with the economic team notably lacking any clear representatives of the Democratic left (the Sanders-Warren wing), instead packed with experienced hands like Janet Yellen (ex-Fed chair) as Treasury Secretary. The chair of the council of economic advisors (CEA) and national economic council (NEC), Cecilia Rouse and Brian Deese respectively, are both centrists, although the two other members of the CEA are from the left. The likelihood of an early roll-out of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and rival ones by Moderna and Oxford/AstraZeneca will buoy markets and risk appetite for the rest of the year, despite the fact that global equities are very richly-valued. The Biden foreign policy team is notable for being manned by relative China doves: Biden himself said last year about China "they're not bad folks, folks"; his pick for Secretary of State (Anthony Blinken) said in July that a Biden administration will "re-engage and work with China" from a position of strength, while Biden's NSA (national security advisor) pick, Jake Sullivan, has spoken of "managed coexistence" with China. Despite hawkish language in the official Democratic platform, the Biden team's instincts are to be relatively soft on China. However, both houses of Congress have turned very hawkish on China, and the State Department published a 74-page document on 20 November 2020 entitled "The Elements of the China Challenge", very akin to Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" arguing for containment of the USSR, asserting that "in the face of the China challenge, the United States must secure freedom" around the world. Although the Biden team's instincts are more dovish (and this will ease the trade war by mid-2021), the tension between containment and "managed coexistence" will be an ongoing theme of the Biden administration.

Despite the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for November 2020 (with payrolls rising by just 245K versus the consensus expectation of 469K), the US economy otherwise remains in robust health. The ISM manufacturing PMI gauges for October and November were the strongest two readings in 2020, with the leading indicator (new orders) suggesting that manufacturing will strengthen substantially further in 1H 2021. ISM's services PMI (56.3) was marginally (1.3 points) weaker in October-November than the June-September average, but still suggestive of a stable economy, with new orders (58) pointing to a healthy 1H 2021. The surging toll of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US (which both climbed to new records for 7-day moving averages in the latest week) will bring forth an aggressive federal-government response from the incoming Biden administration, slightly slowing the momentum of the US economy in 1Q 2021. However, the emerging Biden cabinet is essentially a restoration of the centrist elements of the Obama-Biden team, with the economic team notably lacking any clear representatives of the Democratic left (the Sanders-Warren wing), instead packed with experienced hands like Janet Yellen (ex-Fed chair) as Treasury Secretary. The chair of the council of economic advisors (CEA) and national economic council (NEC), Cecilia Rouse and Brian Deese respectively, are both centrists, although the two other members of the CEA are from the left. The likelihood of an early roll-out of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and rival ones by Moderna and Oxford/AstraZeneca will buoy markets and risk appetite for the rest of the year, despite the fact that global equities are very richly-valued. The Biden foreign policy team is notable for being manned by relative China doves: Biden himself said last year about China "they're not bad folks, folks"; his pick for Secretary of State (Anthony Blinken) said in July that a Biden administration will "re-engage and work with China" from a position of strength, while Biden's NSA (national security advisor) pick, Jake Sullivan, has spoken of "managed coexistence" with China. Despite hawkish language in the official Democratic platform, the Biden team's instincts are to be relatively soft on China. However, both houses of Congress have turned very hawkish on China, and the State Department published a 74-page document on 20 November 2020 entitled "The Elements of the China Challenge", very akin to Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" arguing for containment of the USSR, asserting that "in the face of the China challenge, the United States must secure freedom" around the world. Although the Biden team's instincts are more dovish (and this will ease the trade war by mid-2021), the tension between containment and "managed coexistence" will be an ongoing theme of the Biden administration.  

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US Economy Robust Despite Surging Covid Toll; Biden Cabinet Looks China-Positive