Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

The pollsters have egg on their faces again, with President Trump performing far better than the polls had suggested all year. The Electoral College is close to a dead heat, with the "path to the presidency" for Biden hanging by slender margins in 4 states. President Trump disingenuously suggested that votes "cast after election day" are still being counted -- and that he would mount legal challenges to stop the counting. This was the nightmare scenario: an extremely close election, with Trump leading in several states on Election Day, only to have that vote count overturned in favour of Biden once the mail-in/absentee ballots were (legitimately) counted. Our estimate suggests that former Vice President Biden will still win the presidency, but do so after a messy counting process, with wild swings in many states -- particularly the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump won Ohio (as polls had suggested) and Florida (against the polls, which had suggested a narrow Biden win there). As was widely expected, Michigan and Pennsylvania were able to start counting mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and these have delayed the process. But with likely victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, Joe Biden will get past the magic mark of 270 in the Electoral College, and be elected President. However, the Democrats are likely to see their majority in the House of Representatives whittled down severely, and the Senate will likely stay in Republican hands, which will oblige President-elect Biden to hew to the centrist line he prefers.  Biden is still likely to be able to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (30.8% for corporates that have offshored goods and services), and undertake some of his plans for boosting infrastructure and green investment. But the more radical parts of the Democratic platform will be much tougher to enact -- including expanding the Supreme Court, widening Obamacare, and extending green regulation. Instead, Biden is likely to include a couple of Republicans in his Cabinet, and rule from the centre. While the next few days will be taken up with Trumpian legal challenges to the counting process -- which will prolong the uncertainty over the election outcome -- a Biden win will soon come to be accepted by most, including many Republicans. We were expecting a big sell-off in the market in November if there was a "blue wave". But this form of divided government is a better outcome: after a sell-off of 4-5% as the market digests the uncertainty and the impact of the Biden tax hikes on corporates, we expect the equity market to rebound. On a 3-6 month view, we are positive on the outlook for equities.

The pollsters have egg on their faces again, with President Trump performing far better than the polls had suggested all year. The Electoral College is close to a dead heat, with the "path to the presidency" for Biden hanging by slender margins in 4 states. President Trump disingenuously suggested that votes "cast after election day" are still being counted -- and that he would mount legal challenges to stop the counting. This was the nightmare scenario: an extremely close election, with Trump leading in several states on Election Day, only to have that vote count overturned in favour of Biden once the mail-in/absentee ballots were (legitimately) counted. Our estimate suggests that former Vice President Biden will still win the presidency, but do so after a messy counting process, with wild swings in many states -- particularly the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump won Ohio (as polls had suggested) and Florida (against the polls, which had suggested a narrow Biden win there). As was widely expected, Michigan and Pennsylvania were able to start counting mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and these have delayed the process. But with likely victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, Joe Biden will get past the magic mark of 270 in the Electoral College, and be elected President. However, the Democrats are likely to see their majority in the House of Representatives whittled down severely, and the Senate will likely stay in Republican hands, which will oblige President-elect Biden to hew to the centrist line he prefers.  Biden is still likely to be able to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (30.8% for corporates that have offshored goods and services), and undertake some of his plans for boosting infrastructure and green investment. But the more radical parts of the Democratic platform will be much tougher to enact -- including expanding the Supreme Court, widening Obamacare, and extending green regulation. Instead, Biden is likely to include a couple of Republicans in his Cabinet, and rule from the centre. While the next few days will be taken up with Trumpian legal challenges to the counting process -- which will prolong the uncertainty over the election outcome -- a Biden win will soon come to be accepted by most, including many Republicans. We were expecting a big sell-off in the market in November if there was a "blue wave". But this form of divided government is a better outcome: after a sell-off of 4-5% as the market digests the uncertainty and the impact of the Biden tax hikes on corporates, we expect the equity market to rebound. On a 3-6 month view, we are positive on the outlook for equities.    

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Election Cliffhanger Brings Near-Term Nightmare; but a Curtailed Left Helps Biden