Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Great Game – Can the European Right leverage their victory?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected while core came in to the soft side of 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.</li><li>Our anticipation of rising goods-flation didn’t play out fully, and while shelter re-accelerated as we forecasted, core services disinflated heavily in May due to auto insurance costs declining.</li><li>The main culprit behind the dovish CPI report was the sudden drop in Motor Vehicle Insurance (chart 2.b), which has so far been printing at trend MoM levels around 1-1.5%, lifting headline inflation by 0.03-0.05% consecutively.</li></ul>

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected while core came in to the soft side of 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.Our anticipation of rising goods-flation didn’t play out fully, and while shelter re-accelerated as we forecasted, core services disinflated heavily in May due to auto insurance costs declining.The main culprit behind the dovish CPI report was the sudden drop in Motor Vehicle Insurance (chart 2.b), which has so far been printing at trend MoM levels around 1-1.5%, lifting headline inflation by 0.03-0.05% consecutively.

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal