Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP ended 2022 on a low as widespread strikes made a deeper-than-expected dent in service sector output. GDP’s 0.5% m-o-m fall flattened Q4 to zero growth.</li>
<li>Zero isn’t negative, so a recession is technically avoided by the thinnest of margins that could revise away. GDP was still essentially flat in 2022 and should fall in 2023.</li>
<li>The BoE needs a recession to write off excess demand. Lost output from strikes over inflation-busting pay rises does not help second-round effects and underlying inflation.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP ended 2022 on a low as widespread strikes made a deeper-than-expected dent in service sector output. GDP’s 0.5% m-o-m fall flattened Q4 to zero growth.
Zero isn’t negative, so a recession is technically avoided by the thinnest of margins that could revise away. GDP was still essentially flat in 2022 and should fall in 2023.
The BoE needs a recession to write off excess demand. Lost output from strikes over inflation-busting pay rises does not help second-round effects and underlying inflation.


UK: Strikes Dent Dec-22 GDP